South-east European day-ahead electricity prices for Thursday delivery moved lower across most interconnected markets, with German prices falling sharply. The shift followed a forecast increase in renewable generation that loosened the regional supply-demand balance. The decline was not uniform, with Serbia and Albania moving against the broader trend while Italy’s market strengthened. Cross-border capacity towards Italy remained heavily utilised.
Day-ahead price changes across SEE and neighbouring hubs
On HUPX, Hungarian baseload fell by €12.36/MWh from Wednesday to €171.64/MWh. Romania settled at €174.58/MWh, down by around €11.9/MWh, while Bulgaria declined by €13/MWh to €172.36/MWh and Greece lost approximately €11.2/MWh to €173.25/MWh. Slovenia recorded an even sharper drop to €167.08/MWh, with Croatia at €168.53/MWh, Montenegro at €165.92/MWh, and North Macedonia at €167.45/MWh.
Serbia was among the exceptions to the regional decline, with SEEPEX rising by €5.2/MWh to €168.02/MWh. Albania posted the strongest upward move in the region, as ALPEX increased by more than €30/MWh to €184.06/MWh. Albania therefore traded at a €12.42/MWh premium to Hungary, while Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained below the HUPX level.
Germany lower; Italy strengthens and widens north-south spreads
The clearest external signal came from Germany, where day-ahead power dropped to around €125.54/MWh. Hungary traded at a €46.10/MWh premium to Germany, widening the spread by approximately €15.7/MWh versus the previous day. In contrast, Italian prices strengthened, with the South zone reaching around €205.52/MWh, about €33.88/MWh above HUPX. Italy’s national day-ahead price was also elevated at around €204/MWh.
This produced a three-way structure: Germany at the low-price end, central and south-east European markets clustering mostly between €165/MWh and €175/MWh, and Italy above €200/MWh. Albania moved closer to the Italian price level after its sharp daily increase.
Renewables forecast lifts availability; demand rises marginally
The main driver behind lower prices across central and south-east Europe was higher forecast renewable output. Regional solar generation was expected at 8.223 GW, up by 1.325 GW, while wind generation was forecast to rise by another 251 MW to 1.711 GW. Electricity demand was projected to increase by only 288 MW, reaching 34.028 GW.
The improved renewable availability reduced import needs for the region, with aggregate HU+SEE generation estimated at around 31.671 GW, roughly 503 MW higher. Net imports fell by 214 MW to 2.357 GW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia stayed high at around 3.312 GW, while exports towards Italy increased to 1.402 GW from 1.130 GW.
Daytime-to-evening price inversion across multiple markets
A combination of stronger solar output and continued thermal constraints supported an inversion between daytime and evening prices. Prices were pushed down during the traditional daytime peak period as additional renewables entered the system, while higher-cost thermal generation and flexibility needs supported stronger evening and overnight pricing.
The pattern was visible in Hungary, where the HUPX baseload contract averaged €171.64/MWh. The conventional peak block settled at only €147.9/MWh, compared with an off-peak price of €195.3/MWh. Hourly prices fell to €82.2/MWh at hour 12 before climbing sharply to €251.2/MWh at hour 21.
A similar structure appeared across south-east Europe: Romania’s peak block averaged around €146.8/MWh versus €202.4/MWh off-peak.. Greece recorded €146.2/MWh during peak hours and €200.3/MWh off-peak., while Bulgaria stood at €144.4/MWh versus €200.3/MWh off-peak.. Croatia showed peak prices of €148.7/MWh and off-peak prices of €188.3/MWh.
The intraday spread also remained pronounced in Serbia despite its higher baseload settlement on SEEPEX peak power averaging €153.1/MWh.. Off-peak electricity traded at about €183/MWh., with a daily low of €114/MWh in hour 11 rising to €250/MWh in hour 20.. Albania remained tighter, with its lowest hourly price still at €136/MWh and a daily maximum of €265.5/MWh in hour 21.
Domestic balances shift import dependence and cross-border flows toward Italy
The divergence between markets became relevant for regional trading as solar output compressed prices during daylight hours while scarcity concentrated around the evening ramp and, in some cases, overnight periods. This supported higher value for flexibility resources including gas-fired generation, hydropower reservoirs, battery storage and cross-border transmission capacity.
Serbia imports more on weaker domestic balance; Albania tightens further on net imports
Serbia’s move against neighbouring markets was linked partly to a weaker domestic balance forecast for Thursday delivery . Serbian electricity consumption was projected to fall to 3.664 GW from 3.813 GW., while generation was expected to decline more sharply to 3.071 GW from 3.388 GW.. Average net imports therefore increased to around 593 MW from 425 MW..
SCHEDULED commercial flows reflected this dependence on neighbouring systems . Serbia was importing approximately 230 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 253 MW from Croatia, 142 MW from Hungary, 133 MW from Romania and 79 MW from Bulgaria.. Scheduled flows continued towards Montenegro and, to a smaller extent, North Macedonia . The tighter domestic position helped support SEEPEX even as most neighbouring markets moved lower .
An even larger tightening occurred in Albania . Generation declined from around 1.061 GW to 1.000 GW., while demand stayed close to about 1.16 GW.. That pushed Albania’s net import requirement to approximately 160 MW from 107 MW previously..
Italy remains the main export destination through multiple corridors including Montenegro transit volumes
The ALPEX premium reflected Albania’s limited domestic thermal flexibility combined with lower generation and increased import dependence . Its baseload price of €184.06/MWh stood around €16/MWh above Serbia and more than €18/MWh above Montenegro.. Cross-border schedules also showed Italy’s influence on south-east European price formation through scheduled exports averaging around
