Serbia is preparing emergency fuel-supply measures while also advancing a longer-term crude pipeline from Hungary. The parallel work follows uncertainty over whether the US Office of Foreign Assets Control will extend the licence allowing NIS to continue operating beyond 28 August. Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović said a decision on the waiver may come only shortly before the existing authorisation expires.
The immediate concern for Serbian fuel supply is how operations would function if another waiver is not granted. Authorities and NIS are evaluating refinery inventories and processing rates, along with the ability to keep receiving crude through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline. The government is also reviewing alternative routes for importing finished petroleum products if refinery output has to be reduced.
Refining and contingency planning ahead of 28 August
Planning is intended to determine how much replacement fuel other suppliers could deliver to Serbia and through which channels. The sanctions issue has reinforced the strategic importance of diversifying Serbia’s crude supply infrastructure. Near-term security continues to depend on crude inventories, JANAF deliveries, refinery operating capability and the availability of imported finished products.
The market is therefore dealing with two separate timelines. The 28 August deadline sets immediate risk for refineries and the fuel market, while longer-term infrastructure work targets future disruptions. The Hungarian corridor is not expected to address an immediate disruption to NIS operations because construction will take several years.
Hungary-Novi Sad pipeline tender and planned capacity
A new pipeline between the Hungarian border and Novi Sad could begin construction before the end of 2026, subject to completion of the necessary procedures. Transnafta has already launched the construction tender for the project. The planned line would have annual capacity of around 5.5 million tonnes.
The project is expected to require approximately two and a half years to complete. Serbia’s plan is not intended to replace JANAF, but instead to create a second major crude corridor that can reduce dependence on a single import route. Domestic oil production cannot cover Serbian demand, so long-term supply security relies on infrastructure diversity, multiple suppliers and alternative commercial arrangements.
NIS documentation status and next-party dependencies
Djedovic said Serbia has completed its part of the documentation and negotiations related to NIS. Further developments depend on other parties and potentially require discussions at the highest political level. The immediate uncertainty over the waiver remains unresolved, while Serbia’s longer-term direction focuses on maintaining JANAF alongside developing a second crude corridor rather than replacing one dependency with another.
