South-east European day-ahead power prices fell sharply for Friday delivery as renewable generation increased and Romania’s power balance improved, easing regional tightness seen earlier in the week. Demand was broadly stable, while supply conditions shifted across multiple markets. The correction showed up most clearly in Serbia, where prices dropped by more than €40/MWh.
Serbia’s move created an exceptional discount of around €25/MWh to Hungary’s HUPX. Montenegro remained at a premium, while Italy continued to trade more than €50/MWh above the central SEE price cluster. Italy’s national baseload settled at €205.52/MWh, about €53.38/MWh above Hungary.
Flat regional pricing with Serbia and Montenegro as outliers
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload settled at €152.14/MWh, down €19.50/MWh day on day. Romania fell €21.50/MWh to €153.13/MWh, Bulgaria dropped €19.60/MWh to €152.78/MWh, and Greece declined €20.40/MWh to €152.87/MWh. Slovenia, Croatia, Albania and North Macedonia also converged within a narrow band of roughly €152-153.5/MWh.
The resulting pattern was an unusually flat regional price structure spanning Albania and Greece through Bulgaria and Romania to Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia. The main exceptions were Serbia and Montenegro, which diverged from the rest of the cluster. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload plunged to €127.11/MWh, down €40.90/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN price eased only €1.90/MWh to €164.06/MWh, leaving it well above the regional cluster. Serbia traded at a €25.04/MWh discount to HUPX, while Montenegro retained an €11.92/MWh premium versus HUPX.
Renewables lift supply while demand stays broadly steady
The sharp fall in regional prices occurred despite broadly stable demand levels across the market area. Combined HU+SEE consumption was forecast at 34.19 GW, about 168 MW higher than the previous day. Net regional imports fell from 2.43 GW to 1.57 GW.
Imports from the central European core through Austria and Slovakia declined by around 850 MW to 2.62 GW, while commercial exports towards Italy rose slightly to about 1.55 GW. Renewable generation provided an immediate bearish factor for the marginal unit selection across the region.
Solar availability was forecast at around 8.14 GW, up 1.71 GW versus the previous session, while wind forecasts increased by a further 1.36 GW to approximately 3 GW . Together this added more than 3 GW of variable renewable generation into the regional balance within a single day.
Hourly price swings show solar-driven intraday change
The impact was visible in hourly outcomes for HUPX contracts during Friday trading . HUPX baseload averaged €152.10/MWh, while the peak contract settled at just €124/MWh compared with an off-peak average of €180.30/MWh.
The hourly minimum fell to €67.10/MWh in hour 13, while the evening maximum reached €225.80/MWh in hour 22 . The difference between the midday trough and late-evening peak was about €159/MWh based on those contract settlements.
Romania improves balance and reverses flows into Hungary
Romania played a central role in cross-border fundamentals behind Friday’s broader correction . The system moved from an average net import position of about 910 MW on Thursday to a net export position of 586 MW on Friday.
Total generation increased from 4.92 GW to 6.20 GW, while consumption declined from 5.83 GW to 5.61 GW, improving Romania’s daily power balance by almost 1.5 GW . The change fed directly into Hungary through border flows.
The Romania-Hungary border switched from flows towards Romania on Thursday to an average 616 MW flowing from Romania into Hungary on Friday . During peak hours, Romanian exports towards Hungary averaged 1.45 GW versus reverse flows averaging 219 MW on the previous day.
Hungary-Germany spread compresses as imports composition changes
The flow reversal contributed to one of the session’s largest pricing developments: a collapse in the Hungary-Germany day-ahead spread . Germany’s day-ahead price increased to €143.55/MWh while HUPX fell to €152.14/MWh.
This compressed the HU-DE spread to just €8.59/MWh from approximately €46/MWh previously, narrowing by around €37.5/MWh in a single session . Despite that shift in relative pricing, Hungary remained a net importer on a daily-average basis.
Consumption was forecast at 4.67 GW down from 4.85 GW, while generation declined from 3.94 GW to 3.71 GW, leaving Hungary with a net import requirement of about 959 MW versus Thursday’s 915 MW . The import mix changed significantly as stronger Romanian supply complemented inflows from Slovakia.
Bulgaria increases exports as eastern SEE converges
Bulgaria added another bearish element for regional prices as its generation rose faster than demand . Generation increased from 4.58 GW to 5.18 GW while consumption rose from 3.61 GW to 4.04 GW.
The increase in generation exceeded additional demand and lifted Bulgaria’s average export position from roughly 976 MW to about 1.14 GW . Exports towards Greece strengthened particularly sharply as baseload flows reached approximately 611 MW from Bulgaria into Greece.
The peak flow reversed from an average of 142 MW flowing from Greece into Bulgaria on Thursday to almost 500 MW flowing from Bulgaria into Greece on Friday . With additional Romanian and Bulgarian exports pulling supply eastward, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece differed by less than €0.40/MWh and traded within roughly €1/MWh of HUPX .
Serbia becomes cheapest market despite improved system balance
Serbia moved sharply away from neighbouring pricing levels as SEEPEX baseload fell from €168/MWh to €127.10/MWh . The peak average dropped to just €108.80/MWh and the hourly minimum reached €69/MWh around hour 13.
The daily maximum was only €170/MWh, substantially below neighbouring exchanges . Serbia’s underlying system balance improved as consumption declined from 3.90 GW to 3.79 GW while generation rose from 3.25 GW to 3.37 GW.
As a result, Serbia’s net import requirement fell from approximately 650 MW to about 415 MW . However, that roughly 235 MW improvement alone did not fully align with a day-on-day price collapse of €40.90/MWh and an around €25/MWh discount versus most neighbouring organised markets.
Montenegro stays expensive as Italy draws western flows
Montenegro remained at the opposite end of the price spectrum with BELEN baseload at €164.06/MWh . This was almost €12/MWh above HUPX and nearly €37/MWh above Serbia.
Montenegro’s load increased to approximately 493 MW while generation reached around 350 MW, leaving a net import requirement of roughly 144 MW . Commercial flows towards Italy reached approximately 600 MW as Italy continued trading far above central SEE levels.
Italy’s national baseload stayed near €205.50/MWh with peak power around €205/MWh and off-peak at about €206.10/MWh . Across broader HU+SEE markets, exports towards Italy were approximately 1.55 GW, while imports from Austria and Slovakia were around 2.62 GW.
Forward markets firm even as spot prices correct
Forward markets showed limited indication that Friday’s spot correction marked a wider decline . Hungarian Week 36 power increased by €5/MWh to €159.50/MWh while September gained €3/MWh to €166/MWh; Calendar 2026 rose by €1/MWh to €133.50/MWh.
The Week 36 HU-DE forward spread remained substantial at €38.50/MWh. CEGH gas strengthened to €68.18/MWh, while EUA prices stayed broadly stable at about €82.42/t.
Spreads highlighted for next-session direction
The next directional signal is expected to come from changes in renewable forecasts and Romanian cross-border flows . If additional solar and wind output persists, midday prices are likely to remain under pressure given the peak/off-peak inversion observed in hourly outcomes.
The evening market remained tighter even after lower daily averages because HUPX still reached more than €225/MWh after sunset . For regional traders three spreads stood out: SEEPEX-HUPX after Serbia’s exceptional discount of around €25/MWh.
The second was HUPX-Germany after compression from more than €46/MWh to below €9/MWh, followed by a western SEE-Italy premium still above €50/MWh. These differences reflected cheaper but not uniformly looser conditions across neighbouring markets amid ongoing transmission constraints and cross-border flow patterns .
