Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe diverged for delivery on Tuesday, September 8, as stronger solar generation pushed down midday levels while Italy and parts of the Western Balkans continued to trade at premiums. The spread was reflected in country-by-country baseload outcomes, with Italy at €224.46/MWh contrasting with Greece at €145.93/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX baseload was broadly stable at €176.58/MWh, followed by Romania at €176.65/MWh.
Serbia’s baseload price fell by €12.2/MWh to €178.33/MWh, while Montenegro rose by €51.4/MWh to €192.33/MWh. Albania increased by €14.1/MWh to €182.25/MWh. Bulgaria averaged €157.98/MWh, remaining below the higher-price cluster.
The regional premium structure placed Italy at the top of the market range at €224.46/MWh. That level created a €78.53/MWh gap between Greece and Italy and left Italy €47.88/MWh above Hungary.
Demand, solar output and cross-border flows
The divergence coincided with forecast regional fundamentals that were described as relatively balanced. Electricity demand across SEE and Hungary was forecast at 31.47 GW, about 827 MW higher day on day, while solar generation was expected to rise by more than 2 GW to 7.98 GW. Wind generation was expected to remain broadly stable at 2.33 GW.
The region was still a net importer of around 1.26 GW, with inflows from Austria and Slovakia increasing to 2.19 GW. At the same time, approximately 1.45 GW continued to flow toward Italy.
This configuration pointed to the role of cross-border transmission constraints in shaping price outcomes across locations. Strong solar availability depressed prices during the middle of the day but did not remove the premium linked to westbound capacity toward Italy or local premiums in parts of the Western Balkans.
Intraday volatility and solar-driven troughs
HUPX intraday prices showed a wide swing despite a stable baseload average of €176.58/MWh. Prices dropped to just €25/MWh in hour 13 before rising to €297.1/MWh in hour 20, producing an intraday swing of more than €270/MWh. Similar solar-linked troughs were reported in other markets.
In Greece, prices reached €0/MWh, while Bulgaria fell to €20.2/MWh. Both markets climbed above €260/MWh during the evening ramp, and Croatia followed a comparable pattern with a low of €28.1/MWh. Croatia then rose as high as €304.5/MWh.
Divergent profiles in Serbia and Montenegro
The Western Balkans showed a different price profile compared with Greece, Bulgaria and several Central European markets. Serbia’s minimum price remained at €96/MWh, with a maximum of €284.1/MWh. Montenegro did not fall below €150/MWh, reaching up to €270/MWh.
The reported solar-driven midday discount was therefore less pronounced in Serbia and Montenegro than in Greece and Bulgaria, where midday lows were closer to zero or the low tens of euros per megawatt-hour.
Nets imports, generation balance and BELEN settlement
Serbia’s net import requirement narrowed while its premium over HUPX fell to €1.75/MWh.
A day-on-day reduction in Serbia’s net import requirement was reported, narrowing to approximately 458 MW, down from 578 MW. Average generation increased to 3.07 GW, from 2.91 GW, while demand rose to 3.53 GW, from 3.49 GW. Serbia continued receiving electricity from neighboring markets while maintaining exports toward Montenegro, reducing its premium over HUPX to just €1.75/MWh.
Montenegro recorded a higher local premium alongside BELEN’s €192.33/MWh settlement.
BELEN’s settlement at placed Montenegro at a level about 181/MWh and Week 39 gaining €5/MWh to €188/MWh. October power rose by €3.5/MWh to €188/MWh. On commodities, CEGH gas climbed to €75.06/MWh while EU carbon allowances increased to €84.74/tonne, with coal prices edging lower.
Hourly and geographic exposure dominated pricing beyond baseload averages.
The market signals pointed toward hourly and location-specific exposure rather than relying on regional baseload averages alone as a risk indicator for participants across Southeast Europe. Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia clustered around about >176-179/MWh on a baseload basis, but midday prices were described as near zero or in the €20-30/MWh range in several markets before evening levels approached or exceeded €300/MWh.
Italy-linked flows kept transmission capacity and flexibility in focus.
The reported physical picture included Italy continuing to draw roughly >1.45 GW from the region while more than >2.1 GW entered SEE and Hungary from the Central European core. Against that backdrop, transmission capacity, energy storage and flexible generation were described as increasingly valuable for market participants managing exposure across hours and borders.
