Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe fell sharply on Wednesday, September 16, with stronger solar generation and lower regional demand easing earlier-week tightness. The price correction was concentrated in Greece, Bulgaria and the western Balkans, while Italy moved in the opposite direction and maintained a premium over neighbouring markets.
Spot price moves across Hungary, Romania and the western Balkans
On Hungary’s HUPX, the baseload contract settled at €168.02/MWh, down €21.90/MWh, or about 11.5%, from Tuesday. Romanian prices stayed closely coupled, with OPCOM falling €20.40/MWh to €169.18/MWh, leaving it only €1.16/MWh above Hungary.
The largest declines were recorded further south. Greece’s HENEX price dropped €46.90/MWh to €123.37/MWh, reported as the lowest national average in the region, while Bulgaria’s IBEX contract fell €35.80/MWh to €140.29/MWh. Serbia declined €30.80/MWh to €151.88/MWh, and North Macedonia fell €31.30/MWh to €153.95/MWh.
Croatia and Slovenia traded close to the Hungarian benchmark, with CROPEX settling at €168.92/MWh, down €19.70/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP market fell €18.10/MWh to €170.45/MWh, while Albania declined €34.00/MWh to €169.96/MWh. Montenegro registered the smallest day-on-day correction among SEE markets, falling €8.50/MWh to €169.91/MWh.
Solar and wind forecasts alongside demand changes
The regional decline was driven by an increase in expected solar output, according to the day-ahead outlook used for pricing. Combined SEE and Hungarian solar generation was forecast at 6,714 MW, up 1,087 MW from the previous day.
The higher solar expectation more than offset a decline in wind generation, which was forecast at 1,859 MW, down by 539 MW. Regional electricity consumption was projected at 29,419 MW, down 336 MW.
Hungarian demand decreased by 103 MW to 4,481 MW, while Greek consumption dropped by 153 MW to 5,784 MW. Demand in Romania and Bulgaria rose slightly by a combined 43 MW, reaching 9,160 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia slipped by a combined 22 MW to 8,690 MW.
Hourly price structure and midday versus evening spreads
The impact of solar generation showed up in the hourly price profile for Hungary’s market. Hungarian peakload averaged only €132.80/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €203.30/MWh. HUPX prices fell as low as €2.80/MWh during hour 14 before rising to a daily maximum of €311.60/MWh in hour 20.
Greece recorded a deeper midday adjustment.
Its peakload contract averaged €59.40/MWh, with at least one hour clearing at zero, while off-peak electricity averaged €187.30/MWh.
Bulgaria’s peakload averaged €93.30/MWh against an off-peak level of €187.30/MWh.
Cross-border flows and the Hungary–Germany reversal
Cross-border conditions amplified the split between markets.
Net imports into the combined Hungary–SEE area dropped by 808 MW to only 255 MW.
Flows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia declined by 919 MW to 701 MW, while the region exported an average 892 MW towards Italy.
The reduction in core imports coincided with a complete reversal of the Hungarian–German spot spread referenced in the trading note . HUPX traded €14.32/MWh below Germany, compared with a Hungarian premium of about €9.90/MWh one day earlier.
German EPEX prices increased €2.30/MWh to €182.33/MWh, while Austria declined €6.10/MWh to €183.73/MWh.
Italy’s higher day-ahead price versus SEE
Italy remained the clear regional outlier as its national day-ahead price rose €4.10/MWh to €227.74/MWh.
That left Italy at a premium of €59.72/MWh to Hungary, €87.45/MWh to Bulgaria and more than €104/MWh to Greece.
Italy’s firm profile included a minimum hourly price of €185.10/MWh, contrasting with near-zero midday prices recorded in parts of SEE .
Forward prices weaken alongside fuel and carbon moves
Forward markets also weakened following the spot correction.
Hungary’s week 39 contract fell €8.00/MWh to €183.50/MWh and week 40 dropped €15.00/MWh to €183.00/MWh.
The October Hungarian contract declined €7.50/MWh to €197.50/MWh, while calendar 2026 fell €5.50/MWh to €151.50/MWh.
The Hungarian forward premium over Germany remained positive despite the sell-off . Hungary traded €15.50/MWh above Germany for week 39, €18.50/MWh higher for week 40 and €32.00/MWh higher for October.
The calendar spread stood at €21.50/MWh, up €0.50/MWh on the day, indicating that a structural risk premium attached to Hungarian supply had not disappeared despite the near-term spot correction.
Gas, coal and carbon lower marginal costs
Austrian CEGH gas declined by €3.10/MWh to €81.63/MWh, while the October gas forward fell by €2.50/MWh to €81.50/MWh . European carbon allowances dropped by €2.40 per tonne to €85.61.
October coal was unchanged at $140.50 per tonne, while the fourth-quarter contract eased $0.50 to $140 per tonne.
The daily correction reflected more than changes in fuel costs within the pricing inputs used for this session . A forecast increase of 1.1 GW in solar output compressed peak prices as lower consumption reduced system tightness.
Constrained access to the high-priced Italian market left surplus electricity within SEE during this period.
Evening prices remained elevated even as midday levels fell sharply across parts of SEE.
