Russian natural gas still accounts for roughly 12% of EU gas consumption, indicating that the bloc’s gradual phase-out approach has so far had limited impact on actual import volumes. The REPower Gas Regulation entered into force on 18 March 2026, introducing a staged ban on Russian gas imports. Final restrictions are scheduled for November 2027.
REPower Gas Regulation monitoring by ACER
The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) is tasked with monitoring implementation under the REPower Gas Regulation. ACER’s reporting covers import contracts, transit flows, and supply diversification. The monitoring framework is designed to track how restrictions are applied across member states.
ACER reports that several EU countries continue to rely on Russian pipeline gas through long-term agreements. Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece are cited as remaining supplied under contracts estimated at 16–26 bcm annually. At the same time, Russian LNG continues to be delivered to the EU via terminals in Spain, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
For LNG, contract volumes are estimated at 20–32 bcm per year. ACER also notes that the EU’s highly integrated gas network complicates identification of final consumption points. Gas imported into one member state can be re-exported and consumed elsewhere within the bloc.
Import trends after March 2026
ACER data indicate no clear downward trend in Russian gas imports so far. Between January and May 2026, pipeline imports from Russia rose by 7% year-on-year, while LNG imports increased by 11%. These figures reflect continued inflows despite the regulation’s entry into force.
In the post-regulation period, LNG inflows were up 17% year-on-year through May. This increase occurred despite tighter restrictions on short-term LNG contracts introduced in April. Pipeline imports also rose by 5% over the same post-regulation period.
ACER attributes the LNG rise to multiple factors, including front-loading of deliveries ahead of stricter rules. The agency also cites contractual adjustments and continued transshipment flows already in place. Broader geopolitical developments are noted as influencing purchasing patterns and supply routes.
Early exceptions and expected 2027 impact
So far, ACER has observed only limited direct effects from the new framework across most routes. One exception involved a 65% drop in Russian pipeline flows through the Strandzha 1 interconnection at the Turkey–Bulgaria border after 18 March.
ACER expects the regulation’s impact to become significantly more pronounced once remaining pipeline and LNG restrictions take effect in 2027. The agency also said it is too early to assess the full effectiveness of the phase-out policy. A comprehensive evaluation is planned for ACER’s 2027 monitoring report.
