The regional day-ahead market corrected sharply after the previous heat-driven price spike. HUPX fell to €100.96/MWh, down €36/MWh day on day, while SEEPEX Serbia settled at €104.92/MWh, down €32.5/MWh. Romania traded higher at €108.96/MWh and Albania at €112.91/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia were weaker at €86.42/MWh and €91.45/MWh respectively.
The main outlier was Italy, where the national price held at €139.37/MWh, only €2.7/MWh lower day on day, keeping Italy as the regional premium market. Germany was the clear low-price anchor at €59.54/MWh, widening the commercial logic for Core-to-SEE and SEE-to-Italy positioning.
Spread dynamics across HU-DE and HU-GR
The price move also came with a more spread-driven regional shape. The HU-DE spread narrowed to €41.42/MWh, but remained wide enough to support imports from the Core area into Hungary and Slovenia. At the same time, the HU-GR spread was almost flat at -€0.95/MWh, indicating convergence between Greece and Hungary on the day.
Italy kept a premium of roughly €38/MWh over HUPX, supporting the Italian border’s attractiveness where capacity is available. The premium was especially relevant during evening scarcity hours.
Demand and generation balance shifts
Regional consumption softened to 32,895 MW, down 583 MW day on day, while total net imports declined to 2,835 MW, down 747 MW. Imports still represented around 11% of the regional power balance, despite the reduced reliance on external supply.
On the generation side, hydro fell by 890 MW, gas by 901 MW and solar by 814 MW. Coal was broadly stable at 6,064 MW and wind improved modestly to 1,777 MW.
Country net positions in Romania, Hungary and Serbia
Romania remained a major net importer at 1,533 MW despite generation of 4,593 MW against consumption of 6,126 MW. Hungary imported 1,210 MW with domestic generation of 3,490 MW versus consumption of 4,700 MW.
Serbia also stayed short by 438 MW, with generation of 3,046 MW against consumption of 3,484 MW. By contrast, Bulgaria exported 909 MW supported by nuclear and solar output, while Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 553 MW.
Greece moved into a modest import position of 326 MW despite still-high solar and gas output. The demand level cited for Greece was 7,397 MW.
Hourly price ranges and solar-driven depressions
The hourly profile highlighted trading-relevant extremes in both directions. HUPX printed a daily minimum of €9.6/MWh at hour 14 and a maximum of €204.3/MWh at hour 19.
Serbia’s curve was flatter but still supported intraday optimization, with a minimum of €46/MWh and maximum of €175/MWh at the evening peak. Germany and Austria showed the clearest solar depression, with Germany reaching -€5/MWh.
Italy retained a high floor, with a minimum of €117.3/MWh and maximum of €170.2/MWh. This pattern pointed to commercial value concentrated in evening ramp exposure rather than baseload direction alone.
Cross-border flows between Core supply and Italy
The flow picture showed the HU+SEE region still operating as a net importer from the Core area. Flows were indicated as AT+SK > HU+SI at 3,797 MW.
The region exported 418 MW toward Italy and 554 MW toward Ukraine/Moldova. Internal Balkan flows shifted as well, with MK+AL+BG > GR at 434 MW showing Greece drawing regional support after earlier export-heavy days.
Forward prices diverge from day-ahead correction
Forward markets did not fully reflect the day-ahead correction described for spot trading . HU Week 28 traded at €111/MWh while HU Week 29 rose to €146.5/MWh.
HU Week 29 was up €5.5/MWh day on day and more than 22% over seven days . Gas also stayed elevated with CEGH at €45.10/MWh and EUA near €79.45/t.
Serbia’s spot level versus coal-dominant generation mix
For Serbia’s daily signal, SEEPEX settled at €104.92/MWh which remained slightly above HUPX and well below Italy’s price level . Serbia was still importing 438 MW on the day.
The Serbian generation stack was dominated by coal based on the previous-day mix showing around 76% coal, 20% hydro and 4% wind . The short position was smaller than Romania’s or Hungary’s but sufficient to keep SEEPEX aligned with the higher Balkan cluster rather than the cheaper Austria/Germany zone.
The day also reflected conditions relevant for flexible resources in Serbia given coal dominance alongside wind (and solar) output levels cited in the mix . For investors in Serbian wind, solar and BESS assets, the trading pattern referenced focused on balancing services and evening capture rather than baseload exposure alone.
Date-specific market read for July 3
The market read for 3 July was that spot prices fell across SEE and Hungary following the prior heat-driven spike . Import dependency remained visible in country balances while Italy continued to trade as a structurally premium market relative to HUPX.
HU Week 29 moved sharply higher alongside these spot changes . The combination cited maintained volatility across cross-border optionality while evening scarcity continued to dominate hourly spreads.
