Italy’s €127.69/MWh import pull drives Adriatic and Balkan corridor pricing

July 3, 2026

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Italy stayed the regional price anchor in Week 25, averaging €127.69/MWh, the highest level in the set. It also remained the largest net importer, recording 1.12 TWh of net imports. The scale of that import pull continued to shape pricing along Adriatic and Balkan corridors.

Italy’s domestic generation mix behind the premium

Italy’s premium was supported by a weaker domestic supply mix. Hydro output fell 11.8%, while wind generation dropped 42.5%. Thermal generation rose 66.7%, with gas-fired output increasing by more than 61%.

This shift reflected faster thermal dispatch when flexible low-carbon generation weakened. Gas-fired generation rose by more than 61%, aligning with the higher thermal share in the system during the period.

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Cross-border effects on connected markets

The impact extended beyond Italy’s borders through connected trading routes. Power value that can move through Slovenia, Croatia, Greece and other links was influenced by the Italian premium. Even where congestion limits full price convergence, the Italian level affected expectations, nominations, and trading behaviour across the region.

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Croatia pricing response and demand/import changes

Croatia showed a direct response to this regional linkage. Its price increased by 11.2% to €102.36/MWh. Demand rose by 9.7%, while net imports climbed by 26.0%.

Croatia’s exposure was tied to its position as an Adriatic market with connections into Central Europe and proximity to Italy’s premium zone. When Italian import appetite strengthened, Croatia could be pulled upward through those linkages.

Summer outlook for firm output needs and LNG support

The summer projection pointed to a stronger ceiling role for Italy during hot periods with low hydro and low wind. In those conditions, LNG availability could support gas-fired generation, but it did not remove the premium when firm output needs coincided with import requirements.

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Implications for SEE producers, buyers, and storage

For SEE producers, Italy provided upside when export routes were available into the Italian market. For buyers, it introduced imported price risk tied to movements in Italy’s premium.

Storage developers also faced strengthened economics where Italian-linked spreads supported evening discharge value and cross-border optionality.

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