The 7 July 2026 SEE-Hungary day-ahead market showed pricing shaped by regional price gaps, local balancing constraints, Italy’s sustained premium and uneven conventional generation availability. Prices were linked to import dependence, cross-border flows and the ability of individual markets to stay balanced during tighter hours. Most Southeast European hubs traded close to €102–108/MWh, while Italy National settled at €142.36/MWh.
Germany fell to €72.80/MWh, widening the HUPX-Germany spread to €34.04/MWh. The spread acted as a key market signal as Central Europe benefited from weaker prices, while Hungary and the wider SEE region maintained a premium. That premium reflected continued import needs and supply being redirected toward Italy’s higher-priced market.
Spot price cluster across SEE and outliers
Hungary’s HUPX cleared at €106.85/MWh, down €9.6/MWh versus the previous session, but still above Germany. Regional hubs largely followed the same direction, including OPCOM (Romania) at €103.81/MWh, IBEX (Bulgaria) at €103.03/MWh, HENEX (Greece) at €103.51/MWh, BSP (Slovenia) at €103.11/MWh, CROPEX (Croatia) at €102.34/MWh, and ALPEX (Albania) at €103.56/MWh.
Serbia and North Macedonia were the main upward outliers within SEE, with SEEPEX at €108.01/MWh and MEMO at €108.84/MWh. Montenegro moved lower, dropping sharply to €93.85/MWh. These spreads aligned with differences in each market’s ability to balance supply and demand during tighter periods.
Physical balance supports non-convergence with Germany
Regional consumption increased to 32,075 MW, up 1,604 MW day on day, while total net imports rose to 1,979 MW, up 556 MW. Imports from the core European direction strengthened as Austria and Slovakia supplied 3,244 MW, an increase of 549 MW. Lower Central European prices did not eliminate the regional premium because the system remained reliant on external supply.
The physical balance also supported continued internal redistribution toward higher-value destinations rather than convergence toward Germany’s lower level. Even with weaker prices in Central Europe, scheduled and commercial flows reflected where balancing needs and price signals were strongest across the region.
Italy-linked flows and cross-border optimisation in Montenegro
The strongest commercial signal came from Italy’s continued price premium as HU+SEE remained a net importer overall but scheduled flows still moved 1,083 MW toward Italy. Italy National prices reached €142.36/MWh. This pattern corresponded with Central Europe supplying electricity into Hungary and Slovenia while capacity was redirected toward southern and western markets where prices were higher.
BELEN cleared at €93.85/MWh, but commercial schedules showed exports toward Italy of 425 MW during base hours and 438 MW during peak hours. Montenegro remained a net importer overall at 160 MW. The resulting trading dynamic pointed to interconnection-driven optimisation rather than domestic oversupply.
Tightness in Serbia and structural imbalance in Hungary
Serbia was among the tighter markets in SEE as SEEPEX increased by €10.2/MWh to €108.01/MWh. That level placed Serbia above Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and Albania. Serbia recorded 3,476 MW of consumption, 2,974 MW of generation and 502 MW of net imports.
The pressure was most visible during peak hours when Serbia’s commercial balance reached -785 MW, compared with -219 MW during off-peak periods. Serbia imported from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria and North Macedonia while exporting toward Romania and Montenegro. This flow structure supported the persistence of a premium on SEEPEX tied to peak-hour adequacy constraints.
Hungary showed a similar structural imbalance with consumption at 4,662 MW, domestic generation at 3,695 MW, leaving net imports of 967 MW. The market relied heavily on Austrian and Slovak flows while still supporting exports toward Croatia, Slovenia and Romania during certain periods. As a result, HUPX functioned as a regional balancing hub rather than tracking German weakness alone.
