Hungary stayed among Southeast Europe’s costliest electricity markets in Week 34, with the system increasing thermal generation and relying more on net imports. The Hungarian day-ahead market averaged €155.16/MWh, up 7.2% from Week 33. Hungary ranked behind only Italy among the monitored markets. Against neighbouring Serbia, the market showed a discount of roughly €22/MWh.
Day-ahead pricing and regional spreads
The week’s pricing profile placed Hungary behind only Italy in the monitored set while maintaining a lower level than Serbia by about €22/MWh. The day-ahead average of €155.16/MWh reflected the change from Week 33. Demand conditions also shifted, with Hungarian demand down 0.48% versus Week 30. This left the week’s price outcome linked to supply-side changes described in generation and import data.
Thermal generation and import dependence
Generation data indicated a substantial shift in Hungary’s supply mix compared with Week 30. Total thermal output rose by 149.48%, with the report attributing much of the increase to higher gas-fired generation. Over the same period, Hungary’s net imports increased by 139.08%. The combination meant that both imported electricity and gas-linked generation were exposed to higher marginal costs.
Imported electricity was sourced from a broadly tighter regional market during Week 34. European gas prices were moving toward their highest levels since early 2023. With hydro output remaining limited, the supply mix relied more heavily on thermal and cross-border flows. Hydro’s contribution declined by 11.92% compared with Week 30, though it remained on a very low base.
Hydropower limits flexible supply as renewables vary
The decline in hydro meant fewer domestic low-cost flexible options when renewable production changed quickly. With hydro contribution down 11.92%, the market had less balancing capacity from domestic water generation. At the same time, thermal output increased sharply by 149.48%. Net imports also rose by 139.08%, increasing exposure to regional tightness.
Implications for Serbia and northbound flows
Hungary’s position affected pricing dynamics across the regional trading system through its interaction with neighbouring markets. Serbia retained a sizeable discount during the week, according to the report. That discount provided a price signal for northbound electricity when transmission capacity was available. The Hungarian day-ahead outcome therefore aligned with a pattern of higher-cost supply conditions relative to parts of the Balkans.
