Day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply across Hungary and much of southeastern Europe on Tuesday, with colder weather lifting consumption, renewable output weakening, and electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia declining. In Hungary, the HUPX day-ahead baseload price increased by €45.20 to €233.90/MWh, the highest among the monitored markets. Romania followed at €231.74/MWh, up €48.50.
Croatia and Slovenia also moved higher, rising by €69.40 and €75.30 to €225.27/MWh and €223.46/MWh, respectively. The price increase coincided with a regional temperature drop of about 5 degrees Celsius and a 952 MW rise in forecast consumption to 29,382 MW. Expected solar production fell by 207 MW to 4,957 MW, while wind output declined by 213 MW to 2,266 MW.
Demand and renewables shift as prices rise across coupled markets
The tightening was reinforced by reduced electricity arriving from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports into Hungary and the adjoining SEE markets fell by 1,425 MW to 1,502 MW. Total regional net imports declined by a smaller 306 MW to 1,684 MW, with cross-border flows from Italy shifting by more than 1 GW from the previous day.
Germany’s day-ahead market also saw a steep increase, with its contract rising by €129.60 to €226.18/MWh. This move nearly removed Hungary’s recent premium over Germany, narrowing the HU-DE spread to €7.73/MWh from €92.10/MWh a day earlier.
Southeastern Europe prices diverge between Hungary, Romania and western Balkan markets
The eastern part of the SEE market traded at high levels but below Hungary’s day-ahead price. Bulgaria settled at €211.73/MWh and Greece at €211.76/MWh, leaving both markets at discounts of about €22/MWh versus HUPX. Romania’s discount was only €2.16/MWh, indicating tighter conditions in the coupled Hungarian-Romanian area.
Western Balkan prices were lower than Hungary’s level. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose by €30.10 to €177.82/MWh, but remained at a discount of €56.08/MWh to Hungary. Albania reached €180.83/MWh, while Montenegro eased to €161.31/MWh; North Macedonia fell to €151.10/MWh, the lowest price in the monitored region.
The difference between Hungary and North Macedonia widened to almost €83/MWh. Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, while Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Greece retained net-import positions.
Forward power contracts ease while gas, coal and carbon fall
The forward curve did not fully track the day-ahead surge in Hungary. The week-40 contract fell by €14 to €183.50/MWh, week 41 declined to €197/MWh, and October dropped by €10 to €198/MWh. The Hungarian calendar-2026 contract eased by €4 to €149.50/MWh.
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