In the third week of January, energy markets in Europe witnessed notable price movements across key commodities. Brent oil futures on the ICE market reached a weekly maximum settlement price of $66.52 per barrel on January 14, marking the highest level since October 2025. However, a subsequent decline of 4.1% on January 15 saw prices drop to a weekly minimum of $63.76 per barrel before recovering slightly to $64.13 per barrel by January 16.
The fluctuations in Brent prices were largely attributed to concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical instability in Iran. These fears were somewhat alleviated following reassurances from the U.S. president, which contributed to the price drop observed mid-week.
Similarly, TTF gas futures also experienced significant increases during this period. Starting at a minimum settlement price of €30.25 per MWh on January 12, prices surged to a weekly maximum of €36.88 per MWh by January 16, representing a substantial 30% increase compared to the previous week. This rise marked the highest TTF Front Month price since June 2025.
The upward trend in gas prices was influenced by several factors, including forecasts predicting colder temperatures later in January, European storage levels hovering around 50%, disruptions in U.S. LNG exports, and ongoing supply concerns linked to Iranian instability. Additionally, expectations for increased demand in Asia due to colder weather contributed to the tightening market conditions.
On the carbon emissions front, CO₂ allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2026 contract began the week with a minimum settlement of €90.11 per ton on January 12. This figure was already up by 0.6% from the previous Friday. The market continued its upward trajectory, reaching a peak of €92.24 per ton on January 15—the highest recorded price since late December 2023—before settling at €92.04 per ton on January 16, still reflecting a 2.8% increase from the prior week.
Overall, the third week of January highlighted rising energy and carbon prices across European markets, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, weather forecasts predicting colder conditions, and tight supply-demand dynamics globally, as reported by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
