In the third week of January, electricity prices across major European markets displayed a mixed performance, with most markets experiencing an upward trend despite several remaining below the previous week’s levels. Weekly average prices generally declined compared to the prior week, with notable exceptions. The EPEX SPOT market in France saw an increase of 2.1%, while Italy’s IPEX market surged by 14%. The Iberian MIBEL market recorded significant gains of 40% and 41% respectively, highlighting regional variances in price movements. Conversely, the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries faced the steepest decline of 11%, alongside other markets that reported decreases ranging from 1.5% in Belgium to 4.6% in the Netherlands, as noted by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
During the preceding week of January 12, most European markets posted weekly average prices exceeding €100/MWh, with the exception of the Nordic market, which averaged €91.43/MWh. Italy led the pack with the highest weekly average at €136.13/MWh, while France and Portugal recorded averages of €103.23/MWh and €110.43/MWh respectively.
On a daily basis, the Nordic market achieved the lowest daily average for the week at €80.16/MWh on January 16. Other markets, including N2EX in the UK and those in Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal, also experienced at least one daily price dipping below €90/MWh during this period.
Despite these lower daily averages, all analyzed markets recorded daily prices above €100/MWh at least once throughout the week. Germany maintained prices above this threshold for the entire week, while Italy saw its prices exceed €125/MWh, peaking at €144.98/MWh on January 15—the highest daily average among all analyzed markets. In the Iberian region, a peak price of €127.24/MWh was noted on January 17, marking its highest level since February 18, 2025.
The dynamics of supply and demand played a crucial role in these price movements during the week of January 12. Increased solar energy production in Germany and reduced electricity demand in Belgium, the UK, and the Netherlands contributed to lower prices in those areas. Conversely, rising gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices coupled with diminished wind production drove prices higher in Spain, France, Italy, and Portugal. Additionally, increased demand in Spain, Italy, and Portugal alongside lower solar production further supported price increases.
Looking forward to the fourth week of January, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates a rise in prices across most major European markets due to expected increases in demand and lower wind production in Germany and France as well as reduced solar output in Italy. However, higher solar production in Spain and increased wind generation on the Iberian Peninsula are projected to mitigate price rises within the MIBEL market.
