TTF gas futures rise in the week to September 13
Dutch TTF gas futures averaged €77.99/MWh in the week to September 13, up 8.5%. The contract climbed to a weekly peak of €82.05/MWh before easing to €79.52/MWh. With gas priced close to €78/MWh, the fuel component for generation from a modern combined-cycle plant at about 55% efficiency approaches €142/MWh. Carbon allowances, operating expenditure and plant margins add to the final generation cost.
Wholesale electricity prices remain elevated despite lower demand
Wholesale electricity prices across much of Southeast Europe stayed within €155/MWh to €177/MWh. This occurred even as regional demand fell by 4.7%. The link between dispatchable generation costs and gas prices is reflected in how electricity pricing moves when renewables output declines. Power markets therefore remain exposed during periods when wind, solar or hydropower output is lower.
Country-level changes in thermal generation affect regional pricing
In Greece, gas-fired generation fell by 13.2%, contributing to an 11.6% drop in total thermal output. Lower domestic demand and stronger exports supported a 3.2% decline in the Greek electricity price to €155.32/MWh. During low-renewable hours, the market continued to reflect exposure to expensive gas.
Hungary increased thermal generation by 33.3%, while Romania raised it by 10.6% and Bulgaria by 17.6%. Those changes strengthened system adequacy while also tying electricity prices more closely to the cost of gas and carbon. Gas-fired power remains able to respond rapidly to shifts in wind and solar output, with flexibility carrying a substantial price when European gas markets are tight.
LNG flows and evening-hour exposure to hub pricing
The problem is particularly visible during evening hours, when solar production falls but electricity demand remains elevated. Higher LNG inflows through Greece and Croatia improved physical gas availability during the week. Despite that improvement, exposure to European hub pricing persisted because imported LNG and pipeline gas are still valued against the wider continental market.
Southeast Europe faces a dual sensitivity as declining renewable production increases the volume of gas-fired generation required. At the same time, rising TTF prices raise the cost of each additional megawatt-hour produced.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
