Regional hydro generation trends to September 13
Hydropower generation in Southeast Europe fell 2.1% to 2.81 TWh in the week to September 13. The overall decline masked large movements across national systems. Differences in hydro availability coincided with changes in other generation sources and demand levels across the monitored markets.
Croatia and Serbia see hydro gains amid price increases
Croatian hydropower output rose 53.7%, supporting supply as wind and solar generation dropped 24.3% and thermal generation fell 17.6%. The higher hydro output helped offset declines elsewhere in the generation mix. Despite the improvement, Croatia’s wholesale price increased 8.5% to €176.34/MWh. Lower renewable and thermal production, reduced imports and tight neighbouring markets outweighed the benefit from improved hydro availability.
Serbia’s hydroelectric generation increased 18.2%. With demand lower, Serbia maintained a marginal net export position even as thermal generation declined 5.1%. Serbian prices still rose 11.1% to €155.70/MWh. The combination of hydro gains and demand conditions did not prevent upward price pressure.
Bulgaria and Greece face weaker hydro conditions
Bulgaria experienced weaker conditions, with hydropower production falling 27.4%, the steepest decline among the monitored markets. Bulgaria compensated with a 17.6% increase in thermal generation and slightly higher wind and solar output. As a result, net exports rose 38%. The shift indicates that reduced hydro was offset by other supply sources.
Greek hydropower declined 11.2% to 58.95 GWh. The fall occurred alongside weaker renewable and gas-fired production. Even so, a steep drop in electricity demand allowed Greece to lower its market price and increase exports.
Romania records a smaller hydro rise alongside import reductions
Romanian hydro output increased 2.5%. The rise complemented a strong increase in wind generation and higher thermal production. With broader improvements in supply, Romania reduced net imports by almost half.
Hydropower remains a flexible resource for balancing power systems because it can respond to price signals faster than conventional thermal capacity. Its commercial value increases when solar output falls in the evening or when wind generation changes unexpectedly. Week 37 also showed that hydro availability can stabilise national balances, but it cannot fully insulate markets from regional scarcity and interconnector constraints.
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