Day-ahead electricity prices declined across most markets in South East Europe during Week 24, while generation patterns shifted toward thermal sources. The change coincided with higher renewable output and a sharp reduction in hydropower production.
Hydropower decline across SEE
Regional hydro production decreased by 300.2 GWh (−7.5%) to 3.70 TWh. Türkiye recorded the largest drop at 229 GWh. Bulgaria fell by 42.9 GWh, Greece by 17.3%, Serbia by 4.2%, Romania by 2.4%, and Italy by 2.2%.
The reduction removed flexible generation capacity during a period when summer demand began to increase. With hydro output lower, the regional system required additional generation from other sources.
Thermal generation fills the gap
Total thermal generation rose by 362.6 GWh (8.7%) to reach 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite accounted for the full increase, increasing by 420.6 GWh (24.4%) to 2.14 TWh. Gas-fired generation declined by 58.0 GWh (−2.4%) to 2.38 TWh.
This pattern reflected a shift in dispatch needs as hydro availability weakened. Coal and lignite regained a larger role in balancing during the period of lower hydropower output.
Country contributions and market implications
Türkiye led the coal expansion with an additional 260.6 GWh. Italy added 81.2 GWh, while Serbia increased by 66.0 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania also recorded increases in coal and lignite generation during the week.
The higher coal-intensive dispatch occurred alongside stronger wind and solar output, which helped keep wholesale prices under pressure. For industrial power buyers tracking carbon exposure, lower spot prices did not necessarily correspond to cleaner electricity generation in Week 24 because coal and lignite usage increased as hydro availability fell.
The generation mix indicated that power supply conditions for the summer would depend on how hydropower performed alongside renewables output levels. Hydropower variability was expected to influence how much thermal generation was needed during peak and evening hours, with coal and lignite continuing to act as marginal resources when hydro output underperforms.
