Day-ahead settlements fall across most markets
On 4 June, Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices moved sharply lower for delivery as imports from Central Europe increased and wind and solar generation weakened. Albania was the only major market to post gains. Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract dropped by 27.7% day on day to €88.57/MWh, pulling neighbouring prices down.
Romania’s OPCOM and Bulgaria’s IBEX both settled at €91.05/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX closed at €91.61/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP and Croatia’s CROPEX recorded the steepest declines, falling to €75.30/MWh and €77.61/MWh, respectively.
Albania posts the only major gain in the Adriatic market split
The Adriatic market remained fragmented, with Albania’s ALPEX rising by 18.4% to €119.02/MWh. That level maintained a substantial premium versus the rest of the Balkans. The price moves coincided with weaker regional renewable output and higher import reliance.
Demand steadies while generation declines, increasing import needs
Regional electricity demand stayed broadly stable at 28.3 GW, while total generation fell to 26.95 GW. That gap translated into greater reliance on imports across the region. Wind output declined by approximately 675 MW, while solar generation fell by 857 MW compared with the previous day.
Hydro generation partially offset the renewable decline, increasing by 214 MW. As domestic production weakened, net imports into the SEE-Hungary region surged to 2,869 MW, up 1,300 MW day on day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia through the Core region rose to 3,939 MW, an increase of 1,653 MW.
Hungary remains a key import hub as spreads widen
The Hungarian-German day-ahead spread widened to €27.23/MWh, supporting continued west-east power flows into Hungary and onward into Southeast Europe. Cross-border flow data showed Hungary remained the principal import hub in the region, recording average net imports of 1,540 MW. Romania imported 580 MW, Serbia imported 672 MW, and Croatia imported 674 MW.
Solar-led midday price drops and elevated evening ramps persist
The hourly market profile showed a pronounced solar-driven price collapse during midday hours across most exchanges, with several markets approaching zero-price territory. Evening ramps remained elevated as solar generation declined and thermal units returned to set marginal prices. Despite weaker spot outcomes, forward pricing stayed supported.
Forward power holds up while gas and carbon costs remain supportive
{{}}Despite weaker spot markets, forward contracts remained firm. Hungarian Week-24 baseload traded around €112/MWh, while Calendar-2026 contracts held near €114.50/MWh. Gas and carbon markets were largely supportive for thermal generation costs.
Austrian CEGH month-ahead gas rose to €50.62/MWh, while December 2026 EU Allowances traded around €78.6/tCO₂. The cost support aligned with continued attention to cross-market pricing differences involving Italy and Southeast Europe.
Italy-Southeast Europe price divergence supports Adriatic interconnector use
The Italian day-ahead market traded at €136.96/MWh, more than €45/MWh above Serbia and Romania and around €43/MWh above Montenegro. The spread supported higher utilisation of Adriatic interconnection capacity in line with west-to-east flows during periods of surplus generation in western areas connected to Italy.
Toward the weekend: temperatures rise and evening peaks expected to stay supported
{{}}Weather forecasts indicated gradually rising temperatures across most Southeast European markets through the weekend. Improving solar conditions could keep pressure on midday prices, while evening peaks were expected to remain supported by strong Italian demand, elevated cross-border exports, and continued dependence on imports during periods of weaker renewable generation.
