Prices for Wednesday 29 July delivery in Southeast Europe’s day-ahead market moved in different directions, with drought-exposed western systems recording higher levels while Bulgaria and Italy weakened. The regional market also showed a sharper split across bidding zones.
Serbia posted the highest principal exchange price at €145.13/MWh, up by €28.59/MWh or 24.5% from Tuesday. Montenegro followed at €143.21/MWh, Slovenia at €141.59/MWh, and Croatia at €138.73/MWh. Austria settled close to Croatia at €138.18/MWh.
Romania, Greece and North Macedonia rise while Hungary and Italy ease
Romania increased by almost 18% to €132.87/MWh, placing it marginally above Hungary’s €132.34/MWh. Greece strengthened to €125.60/MWh, while North Macedonia cleared at €114.71/MWh. The spread between these markets reflected the broader fragmentation seen across the region.
Bulgaria moved against the regional trend, falling by €7.28/MWh to €101.81/MWh. That shift widened a €43.32/MWh spread between Serbia and Bulgaria and a €41.40/MWh spread between Montenegro and Bulgaria. Italy was cheaper still at €98.06/MWh, reversing its usual role as a premium destination for Balkan exports.
Drought-linked scarcity shifts toward Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia
The price map showed that immediate scarcity was no longer concentrated in Hungary or Italy. Instead, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia carried higher marginal values on the day-ahead curve. The move was linked to weaker hydropower, constraints on thermal generation, and the cost of securing replacement electricity through congested corridors.
Cernavodă output loss and Danube hydrology affect marginal pricing
Romania’s increase included the loss of approximately 700 MW from Cernavodă Unit 1. In Serbia, pricing was shaped by exceptionally poor Danube hydrology, with Đerdap 1 producing about 5,000 MWh per day, roughly one-third of its normal daily output. Low river levels also reduced cooling availability at the Kostolac coal complex and constrained fuel movement by barge.
Bulgaria’s lower price coincides with higher production and exports below last year
Bulgaria’s lower day-ahead price did not indicate a weak domestic position in the period covered by the data provided. Electricity production from 1 January to 26 July rose by 5.61% to 25.02 TWh, while consumption increased faster, by 6.54%, to 23.56 TWh. Bulgaria maintained a net export surplus of 1.46 TWh, compared with 1.57 TWh in the same period a year earlier.
Hydropower and renewables expand within transmission and distribution networks
Hydropower supplied the largest improvement, rising from
1.69 TWh to 3.27 TWh.
Renewables connected to the transmission network increased by 11.87% to 2.62 TWh.
Distribution-level renewable output rose by 4.14% to 2.48 TWh.
These figures supported a low short-run marginal price while faster consumption growth reduced export volumes available over time.
The commercial value of cross-border capacity rotated towards supplying Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia.
A trader holding firm capacity out of Bulgaria could access spreads above €35–€40/MWh on the daily average.
Physical losses, nomination limits and intermediate congestion were expected to absorb part of that margin.
