In the 13th week of 2023, electricity demand in South-East Europe (SEE) experienced a significant rebound, increasing by 5.04% week-on-week. This overall growth, however, is largely attributed to a striking surge in consumption from Türkiye, which recorded a remarkable 13.91% increase (+816 GWh). This surge has reshaped the regional load profile and solidified Türkiye’s role as the dominant demand center within SEE.
The factors fueling Türkiye’s consumption rise include a normalization of weather patterns, heightened industrial activity, and an uptick in cooling demand as temperatures began to rise. Given Türkiye’s substantial market size compared to its neighbors, fluctuations in its electricity demand have significant repercussions for regional energy flows and pricing dynamics.
While Türkiye’s demand surged, other countries in the region exhibited more moderate and varied consumption trends. Hungary saw a modest increase of 2.64%, and Croatia experienced a rise of 4.94%, both influenced by localized weather conditions. Bulgaria’s demand edged up by 1.05%, indicating stable consumption levels.
Conversely, several markets reported declines in electricity demand. Greece’s consumption fell by 3.28%, Serbia recorded a decrease of 1.30%, and Italy’s demand dipped by 0.43%. These declines suggest weaker industrial activity and milder weather across these markets.
This divergence in demand patterns underscores a key characteristic of the SEE electricity market: the lack of synchronized consumption trends. Unlike the more integrated systems seen in Western Europe, the electricity demand across SEE is significantly influenced by local factors such as weather variations, industrial cycles, and national economic conditions.
The implications of Türkiye’s increased demand extend beyond its borders, affecting cross-border electricity flows. The rise in domestic consumption has curtailed export capabilities, tightening supply in interconnected markets and leading to localized price pressures.
This uptick in demand coincides with broader price volatility observed in early April as system margins tightened amid rising consumption levels across key markets, contributing to upward price movements.
As the region approaches warmer months, market participants are closely observing how demand elasticity will evolve. The anticipated increase in cooling requirements, particularly within Türkiye and Southern Europe, is likely to play a crucial role in shaping load patterns and may lead to heightened volatility during periods when renewable energy output is lower.
