Week 25 provided an early view of the factors that could influence Southeast Europe electricity markets through summer 2026. The period combined higher demand, lower hydro in key markets, weaker wind, rising thermal dispatch and sharp evening price formation. Virtu.Energy is also referenced in the context of the risk map.
Cooling demand and shifting peak pressure
Regional electricity consumption increased 3.1% to 16.34 TWh. Bulgaria and Croatia recorded especially strong increases in demand. Italy added the largest absolute demand volume, supporting its position as the region’s main import sink. As temperatures rise, demand pressure is expected to concentrate in late afternoon and evening hours.
Hydro availability and flexibility for evening ramps
Hydro generation in the region fell 4.7% to 3.57 TWh. Declines were reported for Italy, Bulgaria and Romania. Hydro is described as the region’s most important flexible renewable resource. Lower hydro output reduces not only supply but also the system’s ability to respond to evening ramps.
Solar growth alongside weaker wind output
Renewable generation patterns showed a split between solar and wind. Solar output rose 8.1%, while wind declined 4.4%. The combination supports midday supply but does not fully protect the evening market. Higher solar penetration is expected to bring lower daytime prices and stronger evening spreads unless storage expands.
Thermal dispatch increases despite lower gas prices
Thermal generation rose 19.4%, with gas-fired output increasing 32.3%. Lower gas prices helped reduce the cost base, but power prices still rose because dispatchable generation was required. The risk of summer scarcity is therefore linked to plant availability, fuel logistics and carbon-cost exposure.
Cross-border flows and transmission access during high-value hours
Southeast Europe net imports declined overall, but Italy still imported 1.12 TWh net. Greece and Bulgaria deepened exports, while Serbia moved into modest net export territory. The summer market is expected to reward countries and traders with access to transmission capacity during high-value hours. These cross-border constraints are highlighted as part of the risk set for summer trading.
Price divergence across regional hubs
Price levels diverged across markets in the risk snapshot. Türkiye remained at €16.66/MWh, while Italy reached €127.69/MWh. Hungary was reported at €109.16/MWh. Wide spreads are presented as creating commercial opportunity while also reflecting limits of regional integration.
The risk map points to a more volatile summer structure shaped by cheaper solar hours, expensive evening ramps, wider cross-border spreads and stronger value for flexibility. SEE’s summer price risk is described as depending on the interaction of heat, hydro, wind, storage, interconnection and the availability of dispatchable capacity.
