Day-ahead power prices in Southeast Europe fell across the region on July 2 following the previous day’s heatwave-driven spike. HUPX declined by €98.2/MWh to €136.93/MWh, while SEEPEX dropped by €89.5/MWh to €137.41/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €147.86/MWh and Bulgaria/Greece IBEX/HENEX reached €145.51/MWh.
The regional price range narrowed but remained uneven. Slovenia recorded the lowest price at €118.55/MWh, while Montenegro stayed highest at €153.84/MWh. Germany traded significantly lower at €73.31/MWh, leaving a HU–DE spread of €63.62/MWh.
Demand reset and cross-border supply lift midday conditions
The correction was linked to a post-heatwave demand reset reflected in lower consumption and higher imports. Regional consumption averaged 33,865 MW, down 1,252 MW day-on-day, while net imports increased to 3,779 MW, up 562 MW. Inflows through the Austria/Slovakia → Hungary/Slovenia corridor rose to 4,166 MW, up 1,069 MW.
Renewable output patterns also shifted during the session. Solar generation increased to 7,514 MW, up 967 MW, while wind fell to 1,351 MW, down 259 MW. The combination supported stronger midday supply alongside continued evening tightness.
Hourly price profile shows midday weakness and evening spikes
HUPX recorded a daily low of €71/MWh at hour 14 and a peak of €250/MWh at hour 20. On SEEPEX, prices ranged from €80/MWh at H12 to €281/MWh at H20. Germany and Austria saw weaker midday pricing, with Germany falling to -€3/MWh and Austria reaching -€4.9/MWh at H14.
The session structure featured compressed midday pricing followed by an evening ramp tied to residual demand. HUPX peak prices averaged only €124.6/MWh, below the off-peak average of €149.3/MWh. This left intraday trading and flexibility assets as key elements for managing the intraday profile.
Surplus-export dynamics and import dependence by country
Bilateral flows highlighted a split between surplus and deficit areas across the region. Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 920 MW, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina at 519 MW. Greece moved close to balance with just 59 MW net export.
The deficit side included Romania importing 1,980 MW, followed by Hungary (1,709 MW) and Serbia (619 MW). Additional net imports were recorded for Croatia (387 MW), Montenegro (296 MW), Slovenia (197 MW) and North Macedonia (63 MW). Romania was identified as the dominant import sink amid reduced domestic output and high regional demand.
Serbia converges with Hungary; Montenegro posts the highest scarcity premium
Serbia remained closely linked with Hungary on both price and physical balances. SEEPEX settled at €137.41/MWh, only €0.48/MWh above HUPX, indicating near-perfect convergence between the two markets. Serbian consumption fell to 3,643 MW, while generation stood at 3,025 MW, producing a net import position of 619 MW.
BELEN, in Montenegro, set the highest regional price signal with a settlement of €153.84/MWh on the day-ahead market for Montenegro’s bidding zone. This was €16.91/MWh above HUPX. Montenegro recorded consumption of 00000000
BELEN’s settlement reflected consumption of 0
BELEN settled at €153.84/MWh with consumption of 0
BELEN settled at €153.84/MWh with consumption of 434 MW and generation of only 138 MW, resulting in a deficit of 296 MW driven by limited domestic supply.
Forward curve softens; gas and carbon ease slightly
The forward curve partially eased without removing the regional risk premium seen in spot pricing. Hungarian Week 28 power fell to €107.50/MWh (-€8.5/MWh) and Week 29 to €141/MWh (-€6.5/MWh). The HU–DE forward spread remained at €16/MWh for Week 28 and €32/MWh for Week 29.
Softer commodity benchmarks included CEGH gas at €44.65/MWh, Greek gas at €45/MWh, and EUA carbon at €79.54/t. These changes were not described as sufficient to explain the full spot correction compared with weather normalization effects on residual load and import availability.
Key session signals for upcoming trading hours
The trading picture was described as mixed rather than bearish after the heatwave premium unwound. Market attention for subsequent sessions focused on hour 20 price spikes and core AT/SK → HU/SI flow levels . Additional indicators included Romanian import dependency, Montenegro’s structural deficit, and Serbia’s near-parity with HUPX.
A renewed move toward higher temperatures or weaker renewable output would be expected to reintroduce upside pressure across the region’s markets .
