Day-ahead baseload prices surged at the start of the week in Southeast Europe, with Hungary and Romania leading the move. On HUPX, Hungary reached €222.73/MWh, while on OPCOM Romania posted €223.54/MWh. Compared with the prior session, Hungary rose by more than €126/MWh and Romania by nearly €128/MWh. The increase was not linked to fuel costs, as gas and EUA prices stayed broadly stable.
The drivers cited for the Monday move were higher demand tied to hot weather, tighter conditions around the evening peak, and limited cross-border transfer capacity between lower-priced southern markets and higher-priced Central and Eastern Europe. Total SEE consumption increased to 34.3 GW, up 3.76 GW day-on-day. Net imports climbed to 1.77 GW. Hungary’s consumption reached 5.58 GW, while Romania and Bulgaria together approached 9.89 GW.
Evening scarcity pricing after strong solar output
Renewable generation remained strong during the session, including 8.30 GW of solar output across the region. Despite that, the system tightened during evening hours, shifting the price pattern away from midday lows associated with solar production. The evening peak scarcity levels were reflected in H21 prices reaching €759.3/MWh on HUPX and €766.7/MWh on OPCOM.
The market pricing outcome split into two main zones based on country-level outcomes. Hungary and Romania formed the high-price core above €222/MWh, while Croatia and Slovenia settled at €184.01/MWh and €172.59/MWh respectively. Serbia cleared at €149.94/MWh, still sharply higher versus the previous day, whereas Greece and Bulgaria remained in the low-price zone at €86.50/MWh and €90.32/MWh even as they exported power.
The spread between zones widened materially, with Romania trading about €137/MWh above Greece and Hungary roughly €132/MWh above Bulgaria. The location of tightness was reflected in how prices diverged across borders rather than moving uniformly across all markets.
Cross-border flows show congestion-driven imbalance
Cross-border data pointed to a congestion and location imbalance rather than a single regional shortage pattern. Greece exported around 1.72 GW, supported by strong renewable generation, while Bulgaria exported 738 MW and functioned as a transit corridor toward Romania. Imports remained significant for several markets, including 1.28 GW into Hungary, 1.04 GW into Romania, 1.39 GW into Croatia, and 543 MW into Serbia.
The main physical flow originated from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia, with CORE imports at 2.44 GW. At the same time, the region exported 634 MW to Italy, consistent with bottleneck constraints contributing to price divergence between areas.
Serbia’s import dependence and coal-heavy generation
Serbia’s position contrasted with headline settlement levels due to its internal balance and reliance on imports during peak hours. Consumption rose to 3.95 GW, while generation reached 3.41 GW, leaving Serbia a net importer of 543 MW. Peak-hour dependency was higher still, with imports reaching 937 MW.
SERBIA’s intraday stress was also visible despite a day-ahead settlement at SEEPEX of €149.94/MWh, where peak prices reached €455.1/MWh at H21 . The generation mix was described as heavily reliant on coal at around 73%, increasing sensitivity to evening demand spikes alongside import price transmission.
Montenegro-Italy interconnection supports exports from BELEN
BELEN settlement below Italy while Montenegro exports via interconnection
BELEN settlement below Italy while Montenegro exports via interconnection
The Montenegro market remained smaller in scale but connected to Italy through its interconnector position. BELEN settled at €117.67/MWh compared with €156.65/MWh in Italy, supporting export flows toward the Italian market . Montenegro was described as a net importer overall at around 120 MW, but it still exported approximately 180 MW to Italy.
The export profile peaked near 296 MW, indicating that Montenegro acted as an arbitrage and congestion bridge between SEE power markets and Italy during the session.
Forward curve points to continued tightness in Hungary
The forward market reflected expectations of continued tightness in Hungary following the spot surge. The HU Week 27 contract rose to €152/MWh, up 18.29%. Germany and Italy traded significantly lower at €108.5/MWh and €133.5/MWh respectively.
The HU-DE spread widened to €43.5/MWh, aligning with traders pricing Hungary as exposed to factors beyond a short-lived weather effect, including import dependence and evening peak risk.
No major movement in gas and EUA; weather remains key short-term factor
The fuel complex stayed stable during the price move, with gas and EUA prices showing no significant movement . This was consistent with the session being driven by power system flexibility constraints rather than upstream cost pressure.
Tightness risk was described as conditional on weather conditions over the next days, with temperatures expected to stay high on 30 June before easing into early July . The session’s pricing pattern also indicated that solar output influenced midday pricing while imports defined marginal supply during evening hours as cross-border constraints increasingly shaped price formation across the region.
