SEEPEX averaged €85.73/MWh in Week 25, up 9.6% week-on-week. Electricity demand increased from 554.08 GWh to 565.84 GWh. The price increase occurred as Serbia shifted from a net importer position of 107 GWh in Week 24 to a net exporter position of 21 GWh.
Regional price corridor and Serbia’s net trade shift
Serbia was not short on a physical weekly basis, but prices rose as the surrounding region tightened. Hungary averaged €109.16/MWh, Romania averaged €104.84/MWh, and Croatia averaged €102.36/MWh. This created a higher-price corridor around Serbia, with SEEPEX positioned below the three markets.
The SEEPEX discount versus Hungary, Romania and Croatia supported export incentives and aligned Serbia more closely with regional scarcity pricing. SEEPEX remained above Türkiye, while staying close to Greece and Bulgaria.
Domestic generation mix and operating conditions
The domestic generation mix improved relative to the price move alone, with Serbian hydro output recovering by 42.9%. Thermal generation declined as coal generation weakened. The change in supply conditions helped improve Serbia’s net trade position.
Market conditions also reflected broader Southeast Europe factors, including warmer weather and higher consumption. Lower wind availability contributed to reduced scarcity during evening hours, shaping the day-to-day pattern of prices.
Trading focus on spreads and procurement structures
For traders, the main signal pointed to opportunities in spreads rather than the outright level of SEEPEX. SEEPEX stayed below Hungary, Romania and Croatia, but remained above Türkiye and near Greece and Bulgaria. That positioning supported Serbia being used as a pivot between lower Balkan prices and higher Central European-linked scarcity.
For industrial buyers, the week highlighted the need for structured procurement beyond an average-price view. Exposure to evening hours and regional coupling can be underestimated when only average pricing is considered. Fixed-price supply, PPAs, balancing clauses and hourly allocation were identified as relevant tools as volatility concentrates in specific blocks of the day.
Renewables revenue capture considerations
Renewable developers were also directed to the implications of capture risk for revenue outcomes in Serbia’s market environment. Solar-heavy production was expected to face weaker midday value under the prevailing pattern described for the week. Wind, storage and flexible offtake were cited as elements that can affect project economics.
