Serbia’s preliminary net electricity imports of about 515 GWh from 1 to 22 October were estimated to cost €107.6 million, highlighting the financial exposure created when domestic generation falls short during a regional price surge.
The market backdrop tightened in October. SEEPEX day-ahead baseload averaged €234.31/MWh, 56.2% higher than in September, while traded volume reached 579,308 MWh, up 13.2% year on year. By early November, Serbia was repeatedly clearing close to €300/MWh, with evening scarcity hours above €400/MWh.
The challenge is not simply a lack of renewable capacity. Serbia needs more dispatchable and flexible energy when coal availability, hydro production or wind output disappoint. New wind capacity such as Pupin can reduce annual import requirements, but does not remove the need for balancing, reserve capacity and long-duration flexibility.
Serbia and JICA are accelerating preparatory work on the Bistrica pumped-storage project. Its environmental and social assessment is due to be submitted as part of the financing process. Pumped storage can move large quantities of energy across several hours, support reserves and arbitrage the widening difference between renewable-rich periods and evening scarcity. It can also perform functions that short-duration batteries cannot fully replace.
Short-term trading is another part of the system’s flexibility needs. SEEPEX intraday trading volume remains small compared with its day-ahead market, while the wider ADEX framework and deeper regional integration are expected to improve short-term optimisation. More liquid intraday trading would let wind, solar, batteries and suppliers correct forecast errors closer to delivery, rather than carry greater imbalance exposure.
Serbia’s winter electricity balance will depend on thermal plant reliability, hydro inflows and regional import availability. Better conditions could lower procurement costs; further outages or dry weather could renew pressure during expensive evening hours.
