Southeast Europe’s intraday electricity market is gaining importance as wind and solar capacity expands and short-term system imbalances increase the need for positions to be adjusted closer to physical delivery. In Serbia, August trading data on SEEPEX shows both the scale of activity and where liquidity has appeared.
SEEPEX intraday volumes versus day-ahead market
During August, intraday trading volume on SEEPEX totalled around 4,880 MWh. This compares with more than 547,000 MWh traded on the day-ahead market over the same month. The figures indicate that intraday liquidity remains limited.
Despite the low overall volume, the timing of trades highlights periods when intraday prices moved away from day-ahead levels. The average daily volume-weighted intraday price reached €178.21/MWh, while the August day-ahead baseload average was €136.70/MWh.
Evening delivery periods show higher intraday pricing
Trading activity became increasingly concentrated during evening hours. Tightening supply and falling solar generation pushed prices higher during these periods. Delivery windows in late evening show the highest reported weighted prices.
For the 19:00–20:00 delivery period, about 669 MWh changed hands at an average weighted price of around €299.8/MWh. The next hour recorded roughly 685 MWh traded at €291/MWh, while 21:00–22:00 saw around 681.5 MWh at an average price of €262.7/MWh.
Forecasting and operational requirements for renewable portfolios
The reported price levels affect generators and suppliers by increasing the cost of forecast errors near delivery. A wind farm producing less than expected, a solar portfolio facing cloud-driven deviations, or a supplier encountering unexpected demand changes may need to close positions shortly before delivery. In such cases, intraday prices can be materially higher than those available in the day-ahead market.
This environment places additional weight on forecasting quality and access to intraday liquidity for renewable asset economics. It also aligns with a shift in market structure toward managing positions closer to physical delivery as operational needs intensify.
ADEX plans for a regional continuous intraday trading setup
In late August, ADEX announced plans to establish a common intraday continuous trading environment covering Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia. The proposal is based on a unified M7 trading setup, with testing scheduled ahead of expected implementation during autumn 2026.
The integration is intended to deepen regional liquidity by enabling participants to correct positions using supply and demand across several interconnected power systems rather than relying primarily on local counterparties. It is also described as supporting portfolio optimisation approaches that span multiple markets.
A trading portfolio spanning Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia could be managed across borders, allowing regional optimisation instead of treating each national market as a separate trading book. For major electricity traders including GEN-I, Axpo, EFT, Statkraft, Alpiq and Danske Commodities, a more integrated intraday market could expand trading and optimisation opportunities.
For renewable developers, the changes raise operational requirements tied to real-time execution. Forecasting, nomination management, automated trading and balancing strategies are becoming increasingly important for realised project revenue as weather-dependent generation forms a larger share of output.
The commercial gap between a well-managed renewable portfolio and an unmanaged merchant plant is expected to widen as Southeast Europe’s power market becomes more volatile and more interconnected. This also increases reliance on responding to changing conditions in the hours immediately before physical delivery.
