Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe rose sharply on September 21 as weekday demand recovered. Hungary maintained a substantial premium over most neighbouring markets despite stronger renewable generation. The regional price move followed a pattern of higher levels in parts of the east and lower levels in several Western Balkan markets.
HUPX and regional benchmarks rise
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark increased by €46.40/MWh to €188.74/MWh, the highest among the region’s main interconnected markets. Romania followed at €183.27/MWh, Greece at €181.18/MWh and Bulgaria at €177.47/MWh. Prices also moved higher across the Western Balkans.
Albania settled at €176.12/MWh, Montenegro at €163.20/MWh and North Macedonia at €162.16/MWh. Croatia reached €155.92/MWh, Slovenia €148.12/MWh and Serbia’s SEEPEX market €147.71/MWh. Serbia’s average was among the lowest in the region even after the session increase.
The Serbian market rose by €30.20/MWh from the previous session to €147.71/MWh on SEEPEX. SEEPEX traded at a discount of €41.03/MWh to HUPX, while Slovenia’s discount stood at €40.61/MWh and Croatia’s at €32.82/MWh. The gap between markets indicated that the price increase was not uniform across Southeast Europe.
Eastern cluster versus cheaper Western Balkan markets
The regional spread placed Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece in a higher-priced eastern cluster for the day-ahead session. Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia remained considerably cheaper, while Montenegro and North Macedonia were positioned in the middle of the range. Italy stayed as the most expensive neighbouring market at €224.23/MWh.
Italy’s level created a premium of €35.50/MWh over Hungary and wider margins versus Western Balkans benchmarks. Austria settled at €137.98/MWh, while Germany remained the cheapest major benchmark at €96.60/MWh despite a daily rise of almost €75/MWh on the day. The Hungary–Germany spread narrowed by €28.40/MWh but remained exceptionally wide.
The Hungary–Germany spread ended at €92.14/MWh, with Hungary’s premium over Greece rising to €7.56/MWh. These differentials continued to shape relative pricing across interconnected markets on September 21.
Demand recovery, renewables output and cross-border flows
Regional electricity consumption was forecast at an average 29,301 MW, up 4,081 MW from Sunday as industrial and commercial activity resumed . Demand increased by 1,858 MW in Romania and Bulgaria, 1,288 MW in Slovenia and Croatia, 476 MW in Hungary and 458 MW in Greece . The demand rebound outweighed an increase in renewable generation.
Regional solar generation was forecast to rise by 1,474 MW to 5,808 MW, while wind output increased by 356 MW to 2,009 MW. The combined solar and wind forecast therefore reached about 7.82 GW. Despite higher renewables output, consumption gains were larger in net effect for the day-ahead pricing picture.
Net imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe declined by 591 MW to 2,095 MW, even as consumption increased . Gross inflows from Austria and Slovakia rose slightly to 3,001 MW, indicating that higher regional generation and changing cross-border flows absorbed part of the weekday demand rebound . Hungary remained a net importer of around 1,031 MW.
Romania imported approximately 912 MW, Croatia 700 MW, Serbia 602 MW and Greece 113 MW . Bulgaria stood out as a net exporter of about 1,461 MW . Flows towards Italy averaged about 1,039 MW during the period referenced.
Forward prices and commodity inputs
Forward prices reinforced a near-term bullish signal for Hungary’s market . Hungarian week 39 power rose by €14.50/MWh to €205/MWh, while week 40 gained €9/MWh to €197.50/MWh . The October contract increased by €9.50/MWh to €208/MWh and the calendar 2026 product advanced by €4/MWh to €153.50/MWh .
Hungary’s forward premium over Germany reached €35/MWh for October compared with €20/MWh for week 40 and €21.50/MWh for calendar 2026 . The structure indicated that transmission constraints and regional supply risk were reflected into Hungarian contracts beyond the immediate spot session . Energy inputs offered limited relief.
Austrian CEGH gas traded at €79.95/MWh while October and fourth-quarter gas forwards increased by €3.50/MWh to €81/MWh . EU carbon allowances held at €86.89 a tonne . Coal moved in the opposite direction with October down by €2 to €136.50 a tonne and fourth-quarter down by €1.50 to €137 a tonne.
Weather outlook for September 22
The next weather change was forecast to support demand rather than relieve it . Average temperatures across Hungary and Southeast Europe excluding Greece were expected to fall from around 19.2 degrees Celsius on September 21 to 14.4 degrees on September 22 . Serbia was projected to drop from 18.8 to 14.2 degrees while Bulgaria fell from 19.1 to 13.8 degrees .
The immediate market signal pointed to strong weekday pricing continuing after September 21 . Differences between neighbouring exchanges remained a key trading feature with Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia offering lower-priced supply . Limited cross-border capacity alongside Italian export demand prevented those discounts from fully compressing Hungarian and eastern Balkan market levels .
