The 26 June 2026 day-ahead session across South-East Europe showed lower absolute spot pricing alongside continued structural tightness. The market split between a higher-priced northern corridor covering Hungary, Romania and Italy and a lower-priced southern Balkan block led by Greece and Bulgaria. Regional demand rose to 33,208 MW, up by 1,127 MW day-on-day. The system moved to a net import position of around 444 MW, compared with about 25 MW in the prior session.
Midday prices were eased by strong renewable generation, while evening scarcity maintained a risk premium across northern and central hubs. Hungary’s HUPX remained the regional benchmark at €158.12/MWh, down by €17.6/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €155.80/MWh, closely tracking Hungary, while Italy finished at €155.46/MWh. The convergence across the northern and western price corridor coincided with ongoing support from congestion and evening ramp constraints.
Northern and western hubs cluster near €155–€158/MWh
The Hungary–Romania–Italy pricing pattern continued to reflect tight conditions despite softer levels elsewhere in the region. HUPX at €158.12/MWh remained the highest among SEE-linked markets in the session. OPCOM at €155.80/MWh and Italy’s settlement at €155.46/MWh kept the corridor tightly aligned. The spread dynamics pointed to elevated marginal pricing supported by transmission and ramp limitations rather than fuel-cost pressure alone.
Greece and Bulgaria correct sharply lower on day-ahead levels
The southern markets saw a pronounced drop in day-ahead prices compared with the northern corridor. Greece fell to €87.69/MWh, down by €33.6/MWh, while Bulgaria declined to €96.53/MWh, down by €25.0/MWh. The gap between Hungary and Greece widened to €70.43/MWh, and the spread between Hungary and Bulgaria reached €61.59/MWh. The divergence was linked to strong daytime solar output in the south combined with limited transmission flexibility for surplus northbound flows.
Serbia holds mid-price positioning amid import dependence signals
Intraday spikes concentrate in evening hours across multiple hubs
The intraday curves reinforced a volatility pattern across the region’s price profiles. Hungary and Romania both recorded steep evening spikes, with prices approaching €500/MWh in H21 for Hungary and about €477.5/MWh in H21 for Romania. Midday lows dropped to roughly €44–45/MWh. Serbia showed a similar structure but less extreme, peaking at about €265/MWh, while Greece and Bulgaria displayed flatter profiles including near-zero pricing instances in Greece and very low midday levels in Bulgaria.
Cross-border flows shape spreads between south-to-north corridors and Italy exports
The session’s structure was influenced by cross-border trading patterns across SEE interconnectors. The wider region imported heavily from the Austria/Slovakia corridor, while exports increased toward Italy. Greece was the largest net exporter at 1,665 MW, followed by Bulgaria at 965 MW, and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 299 MW. On the deficit side, Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Hungary absorbed significant imports.
Nodal details: Greece export capacity, Bulgaria transit role, Romania import-export complexity, Croatia imports, Montenegro exchanges
– Greece: consumption 6,858 MW; generation 8,523 MW; exports 1,665 MW; solar above 2,500 MW; wind nearly 1,200 MW; supported by gas and hydro generation.
– Bulgaria: export profile north and west while still absorbing Greek inflows; limited northbound capacity restricts full arbitrage of low southern prices into higher-priced central markets.
– Romania: OPCOM shaped by dual role as importer and exporter; imports heavily from Bulgaria while exporting into Hungary; generation mix includes hydro, nuclear, coal, gas, solar and wind.
– Croatia: consumption 2,555 MW versus generation 1,335 MW; CROPEX settled at €141.39/MWh; imports relied on Slovenia, Hungary and regional Balkan flows.
– Montenegro: BELEN settled at €128.96/MWh; modest net imports alongside active cross-border exchanges including significant flows toward Italy.
Commodity backdrop shifts marginally while power curves stay premium in forward markets
The wider fuel complex eased slightly without changing power pricing fundamentals in the session data provided. Gas benchmarks in Central Europe and Greece softened marginally, EUAs declined slightly, and coal prices eased. Forward power curves—particularly for Hungary—retained a significant premium over Germany. This indicated that structural constraints, ramp risk and evening adequacy concerns continued to be priced alongside commodity moves.
Tightness persists into late-day hours as solar output compresses midday prices
The dominant feature highlighted for the period ahead was volatility rather than a directional trend in absolute levels. Strong solar output continued to compress midday prices across the region’s bidding areas described in the dataset provided. Rising temperatures across Hungary, Romania, Serbia and the Adriatic region were associated with higher evening demand levels within the same market context. The most valuable trading window was identified as H19–H22 ramp period where scarcity pricing is most pronounced.
The structural split between a low-priced renewable-rich south and a constrained import-dependent north was expected to persist based on transmission capacity limits described for south-to-north transfers. Regional flows were expected to be increasingly determined by transmission capacity availability, nomination behaviour and intra-hour flexibility rather than simple price convergence across hubs.
