Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets moved sharply lower for delivery on 2 June, following the previous session’s rally. Prices across Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia converged near the €121/MWh level. The regional shift came as solar output declined and gas-fired generation increased to cover evening demand.
In Hungary, the HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €121.92/MWh, down almost €29/MWh day on day. Romania’s OPCOM and Bulgaria’s IBEX both cleared at €121.21/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX closed at €120.90/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX finished at €121.66/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP settled at €121.75/MWh.
Regional price coupling and Greece’s lower wholesale level
The market remained highly coupled, with only limited price divergence between Central European and Southeast European bidding zones. Greece traded at a substantial discount to the rest of the region. HENEX settled at €96.31/MWh, supported by strong renewable generation and persistent solar oversupply during daylight hours.
Market participants continued to monitor renewable penetration in Greece, where recurring negative-price episodes and midday oversupply conditions were reported to be exerting downward pressure on average wholesale prices.
Demand, generation and import flows across SEE
Fundamentals pointed to adequate supply despite a significant increase in weekday demand. Total electricity consumption across the SEE system rose to 28.2 GW, up about 1.4 GW versus the previous trading day as industrial load returned after the weekend period.
Regional generation increased by 1.33 GW, allowing the market to absorb higher demand without requiring significant import support. Net imports across the monitored markets fell sharply to just 84 MW, compared with almost 1.2 GW one day earlier.
Shift in generation mix as solar output declines
The generation mix changed materially during the session, with solar output declining by approximately 684 MW. Thermal generation compensated for the renewable decline as gas-fired output increased by 753 MW. Coal-fired generation rose by 314 MW, while hydro contributed an additional 254 MW.
Gas-fired plants emerged as the primary marginal technology across much of the region, particularly during morning and evening peak demand periods when solar generation was unavailable.
Hydropower contributed approximately 25% of regional generation and remained the single largest source in the mix. Solar accounted for roughly 20%, gas for 17%, and coal and nuclear each represented around 14% of total supply.
Cross-border flows and forward market pricing
The cross-border pattern remained consistent with prior sessions. Greece was the largest importing market, taking approximately 1.66 GW from neighbouring systems. Romania and Bulgaria continued as net exporters, while Serbia and Croatia relied on imports during parts of the trading day.
forward markets showed limited reaction to the spot correction.
Commodities, Serbian gas power plans and renewables grid rules
Ahead of summer balance expectations, forward pricing showed limited movement relative to the day-ahead decline. Hungarian Week 24 contracts traded around €114/MWh, while Week 25 was assessed near €118/MWh. July baseload power remained firm at approximately €125.50/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas futures traded near €48.5/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances were around €79/t. Coal prices strengthened further, with API2 contracts moving above $130/t, maintaining pressure on thermal generation costs across Central and Southeast Europe.
For Serbia, SEEPEX pricing stayed closely aligned with neighbouring Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. Market participants also tracked a proposed gas-fired power station in Niš, advanced jointly by EPS and SOCAR, which could add up to 500 MW of dispatchable capacity and improve balancing flexibility as renewable penetration rises during the second half of the decade.
transmission connection rules for renewables projects remained under discussion.
TukStream maintenance window and early-June weather outlooks
Industry representatives warned that more than 1.15 GW of planned wind and solar capacity could face delays under the current Serbian transmission framework. Weather forecasts indicated relatively stable temperatures across most Southeast European markets during the first week of June, limiting near-term demand risks.
Traders continued to watch scheduled TurkStream maintenance between 2 and 7 June, alongside regional hydrological conditions and gas storage injections as potential drivers of price volatility later in June.
