Photovoltaic generation in Southeast Europe continues to expand and is increasingly influencing daytime electricity prices. In July 2026, market participants said adding new megawatts alone no longer guarantees attractive returns. The commercial focus is shifting toward delivery timing, storage availability, curtailment allocation and whether projects have firm grid access.
July price spreads highlight midday oversupply
Midday abundance is increasingly meeting evening scarcity, with a widening gap between midday and evening prices. For Sunday, July 19 delivery, Romanian day-ahead power fell to €0.02/MWh during the solar window before rising to €154.13/MWh as photovoltaic output declined. Bulgaria moved from €0.04/MWh to €154.96/MWh, while Greece rose from €0.04/MWh to €156.77/MWh. Slovenia recorded a wider range from €0.02/MWh to €185.11/MWh.
On July 20 delivery, weekday demand lifted the entire price curve without removing its solar-driven shape. Greece and Bulgaria fell to €42.60/MWh and €42.60/MWh respectively before climbing to €190.30/MWh and €190.30/MWh. Romania moved from €42.40/MWh to €190.60/MWh over the same delivery day window.
The regional market monitor placed the lowest-price hours mainly between H10 and H14 and the highest prices between H20 and H22. These two delivery days were described as not representing full-month averages because weather, demand, thermal availability and cross-border flows also affect prices.
Capture-price indicators quantify PV timing effects
ENTSO-E’s capture-price indicator for June 1, 2025 to June 1, 2026 placed the market value of a representative photovoltaic profile at €43/MWh in Greece, €57/MWh in Bulgaria, €58/MWh in Romania, €60/MWh in Slovenia and €69/MWh in Croatia. Across Europe, ENTSO-E said the calculated PV value averaged about 30% below the mean day-ahead price.
ENTSO-E cautioned that the indicator does not account for differences in irradiation or annual energy yield, so it measures market timing rather than complete project profitability. It also said daily baseload averages can be misleading because a solar plant does not receive the average market price evenly across 24 hours.
The same issue was linked to weak capture rates, negative-price hours and curtailment exposure for photovoltaic projects even when wholesale prices are high elsewhere in the day.
Greece reports curtailment pressure after reaching its target
Greece was cited as an example where solar deployment has outpaced system flexibility after reaching its 2030 solar-capacity target. Industry participants said midday congestion and curtailment intensified as storage and network investment lagged behind deployment.
Participants warned that curtailment could reduce solar income by around 40% during 2026. The financial impact was reported as visible before July: in April, Greek photovoltaic plants above 400 kW under the principal state-support mechanism reportedly received on average 50% less revenue than in April 2025.
Some companies reported losses of up to 60% compared with revenue levels without curtailment and with zero or negative prices. Larger plants connected to the transmission system were reported as particularly affected.
Batteries change price patterns in Bulgaria
Bulgaria was described as showing how storage can reshape the price curve through changes during both solar production hours and evening peaks. On July 20, Sunotec and GEN-I announced the commercial operation of a 50 MW/126 MWh standalone battery in northwestern Bulgaria.
Bulgarian market participants reported that batteries lifted prices during solar-production hours by about €8/MWh in May while reducing evening peak prices by roughly €50/MWh through discharge. The estimates were presented as market observations rather than audited system-wide calculations.
Storage value indicators for Greece, Bulgaria and Romania
A simplified storage-value indicator from ENTSO-E used the average daily difference between the eight lowest-priced and eight highest-priced day-ahead hours for the year ending June 1, 2026. The metric reached €798/MW in Greece, €797/MW in Bulgaria and €792/MW in Romania.
The figures were not presented as bankable battery revenues because they exclude efficiency losses, degradation, fees, operational constraints and balancing-market performance. They were described as consistent with why Southeast Europe has become an increasingly attractive market for energy storage.
Romania introduces solar-profile trading product
A July development in Romania involved a new contract structure tied to expected PV output profiles rather than flat baseload delivery. The Romanian Commodities Exchange recorded the country’s first solar-profile power transaction covering 1,920 MWh for September delivery at RON 275/MWh, approximately €55/MWh.
The transaction price was not treated as a forecast for broader Romanian solar market conditions because its significance was described as product innovation linked to managing production profiles and forecasting errors.
The contract was described as following expected hourly photovoltaic production instead of using a conventional flat baseload product. Romanian developers were also reported as increasingly adding batteries to projects, with storage becoming a prerequisite in some transactions.
Auctioning grid capacity replaces first-come allocation
The July trend on grid access was described as shifting away from nominal project pipelines unless deliverable connection rights are secured. Romania is replacing first-come, first-served grid allocation with capacity auctions.
Government figures cited technical connection approvals at approximately 80 GW, compared with around 9 GW of capacity considered necessary for the economy. Auctions and higher financial guarantees were described as intended to filter out speculative projects and direct capital toward developments capable of reaching the grid.
Status of connection studies in Serbia and auction redesigns in Montenegro
In Serbia, applications for connection studies for large solar and wind projects will not be processed until 2029 under an amended framework while the transmission operator conducts a new study round for other eligible facilities.
Montenegro was also reported as redesigning its 250 MW solar market-premium auction after none of the bids in the first tender met legal and technical requirements. The government and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are revising documentation, with no replacement launch date fixed as of July 20.
Diverging solar segments depend on flexibility and hedging
The outlook for investment was described as continuing across Southeast Europe where permitting and construction timelines remain comparatively short. However, participants said the sector is increasingly splitting into two segments based on contract structure and grid access.
The stronger segment was described as involving firm connection rights plus storage or portfolio-level flexibility, realistic curtailment assumptions and offtake contracts aligned with actual solar production curves. The weaker segment was described as undifferentiated unhedged photovoltaic capacity relying on historical baseload averages or assuming all generated megawatt-hours reach the market.
This was linked to July 2026 being a point where competition shifts toward timing, flexibility and access to grid capacity rather than an endpoint for regional deployment.
