Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary rose 111% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, reaching approximately 788 GWh versus 374 GWh in the same period a year earlier. The increase occurred while total Western Balkan exports to the EU declined by 16% and overall regional electricity exchange contracted.
The Serbia–Hungary corridor strengthening is not attributable to the bilateral price spread alone. Hungary’s average day-ahead price was around €12.9/MWh higher than Serbia’s, compared with an approximately €33/MWh spread recorded in the first quarter. Serbia also applies a national CBAM default emission factor of 1.041 tCO₂/MWh, implying an estimated carbon cost of €78.37/MWh at the Q2 certificate price.
Hungary–Ukraine auctions and allocated transmission capacity
A broader regional demand centre is linked to the flow pattern described for the quarter. Hungary was the most important route for Ukrainian electricity imports during Q2 2026. Around 1,546 GWh of transmission capacity was allocated through daily Hungary–Ukraine auctions, about 247% higher than in Q2 2025.
The auctions generated around €12.5 million, with offered capacity almost fully allocated. The Energy Community Secretariat considers the connection provisional because transit volumes cannot be separated from aggregate commercial schedules. The wider regional flow pattern nevertheless supports this interpretation.
Northern shift in Western Balkans schedules toward Serbia
Regional schedule changes also point to increased northbound movement toward Serbia. Romania-to-Hungary schedules increased by 156%. Electricity flows within the Western Balkans increasingly moved northwards towards Serbia.
Montenegro-to-Serbia flows rose by 56%, North Macedonia-to-Serbia increased by 46%, Albania-to-Kosovo climbed by 153%, and Kosovo-to-North Macedonia rose by 110%. This set of changes aligns with the view that Serbia is taking on a more important regional role as commercial power flows move northwards toward Hungary and potentially onward to Ukraine.
Market activity on SEEPEX and implications for grid operation
The recovery in SEEPEX trading activity is described as consistent with the emerging corridor role. Day-ahead volumes on the Serbian power exchange increased by 7% after contracting in Q1 2026.
A higher level of trading through Serbia can support market liquidity and price discovery, but corridor value depends on transmission availability and auction transparency. It also depends on whether the grid can handle both scheduled transactions and physical loop flows, alongside congestion costs and unplanned physical flows across the interconnected regional system.
Transmission constraints, balancing needs, and flexibility options
The development increases emphasis on Serbia’s transmission infrastructure as northbound flows rise. The networks highlighted are the 400 kV and 220 kV systems, alongside cross-border capacity optimisation, phase-angle management, forecasting and balancing.
The corridor is also linked to opportunities for battery energy storage and flexible generation. Traders serving demand in Hungary and Ukraine require short-term portfolio balancing, intraday flexibility and reserve capacity, which could be supported by Serbia’s hydropower assets, thermal generation fleet and future BESS capacity. Carbon exposure is cited as a factor affecting which generation sources can access premium EU demand.
The operational requirement is described as rising with growing northbound flows, with grid reinforcement expected to keep pace. Q2 data indicate that market activity has already begun assigning Serbia that transit and balancing role.
