The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) electricity rules have shifted national electricity emission factors into a direct commercial cost for exports from the Western Balkans to the European Union. At current certificate prices, the implied charge is described as high enough to surpass the visible wholesale price spread on major carbon-intensive export corridors.
In Q2 2026, the average CBAM certificate price was €75.28/tCO₂, compared with €75.36/tCO₂ in Q1. Daily auction prices in the quarter ranged between €70.60 and €80.43/tCO₂. The range is reported as narrower than during the first quarter.
Using national default emission factors, the quarterly average certificate price implies CBAM costs of €86.42/MWh for Bosnia and Herzegovina, €78.37/MWh for Serbia, and €74.08/MWh for Kosovo. The same approach yields €73.70/MWh for Montenegro and €66.77/MWh for North Macedonia. Albania’s default emission factor is reported as zero, resulting in an implied cost of €0/MWh.
Implied charges versus corridor wholesale differentials
The comparison with wholesale price spreads shows different gaps across corridors tied to carbon-intensive generation. Serbia’s average discount to Hungary is reported at around €12.9/MWh, below the implied CBAM cost of €78.37/MWh. Montenegro’s discount to Italy is described as approximately €27.2/MWh, compared with a default-factor charge of nearly €74/MWh.
North Macedonia is reported to trade close to parity with Greece while carrying an implied CBAM cost of almost €67/MWh. The figures are presented as indicating that, on these corridors, the visible wholesale spread does not offset the cost derived from national default emission factors.
Limits on day-ahead arbitrage under national default factors
The data are used to argue that simple day-ahead arbitrage cannot support exports priced entirely under national default factors. Commercial transactions are described as needing other elements beyond day-ahead spreads.
The source identifies several potential components for transactions: hourly price peaks, contractual positions, transit demand, expectations of regulatory changes, or eligibility to use actual embedded-emission values . The approach is framed around whether those conditions can be met for specific trades rather than relying only on day-ahead pricing.
Renewables exposure and verification requirements
The national-factor method is described as creating a challenge for renewable projects in Serbia and Montenegro even when operational emissions are close to zero. A wind, hydropower or solar plant may still be assessed using a national emission factor influenced by lignite generation unless requirements for using actual values are fully met.
This means generators can be commercially exposed to the carbon intensity of the wider national power system rather than their individual plant’s emissions profile . The source links this exposure to how emission factors are applied in export assessments.
Diverging outcomes: Albania and North Macedonia corridor shifts
An alternative case is described for Albania, where a predominantly hydropower-based system continued exporting to Greece despite a price spread of only €1.6/MWh. The zero default factor is cited as allowing Albanian electricity to remain competitive even when conventional wholesale arbitrage was almost absent.
By contrast, North Macedonia is reported to have seen exports to Greece fall by 78%, while Greek exports in the opposite direction increased by around 70%. These changes are presented alongside differences in how default emission factors apply across countries.
A two-tier regional market and implications for new projects
The source describes an emerging two-tier regional electricity market based on how low-carbon systems and carbon-intensive systems interact with EU buyers under CBAM electricity provisions. It states that low-carbon power systems can retain access at relatively narrow price spreads, while carbon-intensive systems require exceptionally wide spreads, verifiable low-carbon generation, or another commercial incentive.
The impact is also extended beyond existing trade flows. National emission factors are described as increasingly relevant to projected revenues for new renewable projects, the value of cross-border PPAs, and lenders’ willingness to finance merchant market exposure . A project whose base-case assumptions depend on access to Hungarian or Italian wholesale prices could face a revenue downgrade if that access relies on a verification framework that is not yet fully operational.
CBAM electricity provisions as a documentation-dependent charge
The source characterizes CBAM electricity provisions as functioning like a border carbon charge where origin and emissions cannot be adequately documented. It states that the cost depends not only on generation technology but also on whether the contractual, metering and verification chain can demonstrate the identity and emissions profile of generation throughout the export process .
