Serbia’s government plans approximately €14.4 billion in energy investment between 2028 and 2035. The programme allocates about €6.5 billion to generation, €2.4 billion to transmission and distribution, and €1.2 billion each to gas interconnections and oil pipelines. The projects are set against market conditions shaped by carbon costs, negative wholesale prices and grid constraints.
Planned spending across generation, networks, and fuel links
Of the total investment envelope, around €6.5 billion is earmarked for generation assets. Transmission and distribution receive about €2.4 billion under the government’s plan. Gas interconnections and oil pipelines are each allocated €1.2 billion between 2028 and 2035.
Wind, solar, and storage projects backed by foreign financing
SANY Renewable Energy has begun construction of the 168 MW Alibunar A and B wind portfolio, with an estimated cost of approximately €240 million. The development uses 40 turbines and is expected to produce around 480 GWh annually. About 70% of the secured capacity received market-premium support through Serbia’s renewable auction.
The Hyundai Engineering–UGT Renewables programme is scheduled to deliver 1.2 GWp of solar capacity and 1 GW of connection capacity. It also includes 200 MW/400 MWh of battery storage before transfer to EPS. South Korea’s K-Sure is providing approximately €900 million in export financing, with expected annual production around 1.5 TWh.
Niş gas plant talks with SOCAR for 2030 completion
At Niš, EPS and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR are negotiating a joint venture for a gas-fired power plant targeted for completion by 2030. The project would position SOCAR beyond commodity supply into Serbian electricity generation. The negotiations are focused on establishing the joint venture structure for the plant.
Negative prices, storage spreads, and CBAM-linked revenue pressure
Market economics for new capacity are being affected by negative wholesale pricing. SEEPEX recorded a price of minus €45.50/MWh on June 7, with nine consecutive negative hours . Over the same period, the estimated solar capture price fell to only €1.70/MWh, compared with a daily baseload average of €52.20/MWh.
The data also points to volatility in merchant returns for storage assets. Indicative arbitrage spreads reached €163.60/MWh for two-hour batteries and €151.50/MWh for four-hour systems . These figures were presented alongside the need for storage in the context of negative-price episodes.
CBAM adds further pressure on coal-intensive EPS operations. Management estimates approximately €150 million in lost revenue from constrained EU electricity exports due to CBAM-related effects . Serbia’s domestic carbon charge of €4 per tonne, applied to emissions of 25 million tonnes, could cost EPS around €100 million, while remaining far below EU ETS pricing.
Earnings outlook tied to grid delivery, storage deployment, capture prices, and carbon exposure
The investment programme is described as large enough to transform Serbia’s generating fleet, but returns depend on multiple variables including transmission completion and storage deployment . Wind and solar capture prices are also cited as key factors alongside carbon exposure levels. The ability of EPS to implement operational restructuring without weakening project delivery is identified as another determinant.
