Week 27 price jump in Serbia’s day-ahead market
Average day-ahead power prices in Serbia increased to EUR 139.93/MWh during the week of 29 June–5 July. The figure represented a 26.3% week-on-week rise. Serbia traded below Romania, Hungary and Croatia in absolute terms, but it was higher than Greece and Bulgaria. This pattern pointed to tighter conditions in Serbia’s domestic market.
Cross-border flows shift toward larger Serbian imports
The price move coincided with a change in cross-border electricity flows. Serbia shifted from a marginal net import position of 7 GWh in Week 26 to 90 GWh in Week 27. The increase indicated higher reliance on imported electricity. It also increased exposure to regional supply conditions and wholesale price developments.
Lignite-fired generation absent as thermal output declines
Domestic supply conditions weakened during the same period. The report cited a sharp decline in thermal generation linked to the absence of lignite-fired output. With lignite described as a key source of baseload generation in Serbia, lower production reduced domestic supply. That reduction increased dependence on imported electricity, particularly when demand was higher.
High-price corridor effects across Romania, Hungary and Croatia
Serbia’s position is tied to the Romania–Hungary–Croatia high-price corridor. During Week 27, Romania recorded average day-ahead prices of EUR 164.31/MWh, Hungary averaged EUR 162.04/MWh, and Croatia reached EUR 142.57/MWh. As Serbian import requirements rose, neighbouring markets also showed elevated pricing levels. This limited access to lower-cost electricity for Serbian buyers.
Renewables and evening peak demand influence import needs
Weather and renewable generation were also highlighted as key drivers for regional supply. Stronger wind production or improved hydro availability across Southeast Europe could raise regional generation and reduce import costs. A separate scenario of weak renewable output would leave Serbia more reliant on imported thermal generation. This would be especially relevant during evening peak hours when solar output declines and demand remains elevated.
Near-term focus on lignite availability and regional spreads
The near-term outlook described Serbia as the primary stress market in Southeast Europe. Market participants were advised to monitor lignite availability and cross-border import flows closely. Attention was also directed to regional price spreads and evening peak prices. These factors were expected to influence whether the current price premium persists or eases.
