Electricity trading in Southeast Europe entered a tighter phase after Week 27, with Romania, Hungary and Serbia drawing close attention from market participants. The shift was associated with higher electricity demand, weaker renewable generation, softer hydro output and growing import requirements across the region. These factors supported stronger wholesale power prices during the reporting period.
Day-ahead price levels across Southeast Europe
During the week of 29 June–5 July, Romania and Hungary were the region’s most expensive day-ahead markets. Average prices reached EUR 164.31/MWh in Romania and EUR 162.04/MWh in Hungary. Croatia followed at EUR 142.57/MWh.
Serbia recorded one of the largest weekly increases, with average day-ahead prices rising 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh. Greece and Bulgaria remained the lowest-priced markets, averaging EUR 112.81/MWh and EUR 114.61/MWh, respectively. In both countries, prices stayed above the EUR 100/MWh threshold.
Italy was the only major regional market to move lower during the week. Its average prices declined 6.8% to EUR 134.85/MWh.
Serbia’s import shift and thermal generation changes
Serbia provided a clear short-term signal through changes in net imports between Week 26 and Week 27. The country moved from a marginal net import position of 7 GWh in Week 26 to 90 GWh in Week 27. The increase coincided with a sharp decline in thermal generation.
The thermal drop was linked to the absence of lignite-fired output during the week. That development left Serbia more dependent on regional electricity imports and cross-border market conditions.
Romania–Hungary–Serbia–Croatia corridor focus
The Romania–Hungary–Serbia–Croatia corridor became a key trading focus as elevated power prices aligned with stronger import demand and tighter domestic supply. Market conditions continued to reflect stronger wholesale pricing during periods of system stress.
Trading activity also pointed to specific time-of-day dynamics rather than uniform baseload pricing behavior. The main stress window was identified between 19:00 and 22:00, when solar generation declines quickly and systems rely more on dispatchable thermal generation and imported electricity.
Cross-border flows and gas price signals
Cross-border volumes reinforced the tightening picture for Southeast Europe. Total net imports increased 28.2%, rising from 972 GWh to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s net imports surged 157.9% to 202 GWh, while Romania’s imports climbed 44.8% to 194 GWh.
Although Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, their export surpluses narrowed over the week. Natural gas prices were also tracked by traders, with TTF gas futures averaging EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% from the previous week.
The TTF contract moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the reporting period, while the one-month TTF contract traded near EUR 49.045/MWh as the report was finalised . Alongside this, thermal power generation across Southeast Europe increased by 6.5%, supporting firmer peak electricity pricing expectations .
Monitoring priorities for upcoming sessions
Market participants indicated that monitoring would remain centered on regional price spreads involving Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia, along with evening peak prices and cross-border import flows . Traders also tracked TTF and THE gas markets and short-term changes in wind and hydro generation.
The near-term direction for peak power pricing depended on whether factors such as cooler weather, stronger renewable output, improved hydro conditions or a recovery in Serbian thermal generation reduced import dependence . Without those changes, peak power prices were expected to stay supported in Southeast Europe.
