Southeast Europe entered the early summer electricity season with a market pattern that is increasingly relevant for traders, utilities, and industrial consumers. In Week 24, regional electricity demand rose to 15.85 TWh, up 4.6% week on week. Despite the higher consumption levels, most day-ahead markets in the region reported lower average prices, indicating a separation between demand growth and price movement.
The fall in prices was not associated with weaker demand. Electricity demand increased in several major markets, including Italy (+319.8 GWh), Türkiye (+246.7 GWh), and Greece (+55.0 GWh). Greece’s weekly consumption moved above 1.01 TWh, while renewable generation expanded more quickly than electricity demand.
Wind and solar output rises as wholesale prices ease
Combined wind and solar generation across Southeast Europe reached 3.64 TWh in the week, up 16.6%. Wind generation increased by 28.1% to 1.40 TWh, while solar output rose by 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. The availability of renewable electricity with low marginal costs contributed to downward pressure on wholesale power prices across much of the region.
Serbia recorded the largest price adjustment among regional markets, with its average weekly electricity price dropping by 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Hungary also saw declines over the same period. Italy experienced lower prices as well, but remained the region’s most expensive market at €123.17/MWh.
Greece was the only major exception to the broader downward trend in day-ahead averages. Its average weekly price increased modestly to €91.53/MWh. Across the region, the combination of higher renewable output and falling or stable average prices shaped trading conditions for Week 24.
Hydropower drop shifts dispatch toward thermal generation
The price picture coincided with changes in generation that affected system balance. Hydropower production declined by 7.5%, cutting a flexible generation source by more than 300 GWh. Thermal plants increased output by 8.7% to cover the shortfall.
Coal and lignite generation rose sharply, increasing by 24.4%. Gas-fired generation edged slightly lower during the week. These shifts reflected the need for replacement capacity as hydropower availability fell.
Weekly averages give way to hourly dynamics for summer trading
The latest market data point to a more complex summer outlook than a single driver tied to renewable-led price declines. Solar and wind output increasingly limited weekly average prices, while reduced hydropower availability and ongoing evening demand peaks supported continued reliance on thermal generation for stability.
Market participants are therefore expected to place more emphasis on hourly price movements than on weekly averages alone. Flexibility opportunities and cross-market spreads are also highlighted by the shift in supply-demand conditions during early summer trading.
For traders, volatility is becoming a more important source of value under these conditions. Industrial buyers are expected to track intraday market dynamics more closely rather than relying only on broad demand trends.
