In the week spanning March 16 to March 22, 2023, Southeast Europe experienced significant shifts in its renewable energy generation landscape. A notable increase in wind power output counterbalanced a decline in solar generation, while hydropower production remained relatively stable yet varied across different countries.
Total variable renewable energy output surged by 23.2% compared to the previous week, primarily driven by a remarkable 60.1% increase in wind generation across the region. This surge was particularly pronounced in Romania, where wind output skyrocketed by 159.7%, followed by Bulgaria with an impressive 269.3% increase, and Greece at 105.5%. Italy and Croatia also reported substantial gains of 110.9% and 63.1%, respectively, while Türkiye contributed a more modest rise of 29.5%.
The dramatic rise in wind energy has significantly reshaped the regional power balance, leading to reduced dependence on thermal generation during peak production periods. This shift has also exerted downward pressure on intraday electricity prices in several markets.
<pConversely, solar generation faced challenges, declining by 14.5% week on week due to diminished seasonal irradiance levels. Greece experienced the most significant drop at -37.9%, followed closely by Türkiye at -41.1%, and Romania at -29.9%. Bulgaria recorded a smaller decrease of -9.6%, while Italy was the only major market to see an uptick in solar output during this period.
This reduction in solar energy availability has tightened system conditions during evening peak hours, leading to increased reliance on dispatchable power sources and heightened intraday price volatility.
Hydropower generation across Southeast Europe remained largely unchanged overall, with a slight decline of -0.04%. However, performance varied significantly among countries; Greece saw a notable decrease of -30.44%, Bulgaria dropped by -24.23%, and Romania experienced a decline of -15.89%. In contrast, Croatia and Serbia reported substantial increases of 248.47% and 107.04%, respectively, from lower production bases, while Italy’s hydropower output rose by 15.89%.
The discrepancies in hydropower output have reinforced cross-border balancing dynamics within the region, with Western Balkan systems providing additional flexibility amidst tighter hydrological conditions faced by core EU markets.
No nuclear generation data was available for this period within the Southeast European context; thus, any nuclear influence was limited to indirect imports from neighboring markets.
The overall generation mix for Week 12 leaned heavily towards wind-driven renewable supply, with diminished contributions from solar and stable hydro outputs. Market observers noted that although increased wind penetration applied downward pressure on prices at certain times, the overarching pricing structure remained buoyed by high fuel costs—particularly for gas—ensuring a robust baseline across Southeast Europe’s power markets.
