The 6 July 2026 day-ahead session marked a post-weekend reset across Southeast Europe, moving from a low-price Sunday structure into firmer Monday trading. Demand recovery, temperature-related load, and evening scarcity pricing contributed to the shape of the regional curve. The session showed how quickly intraday regimes can change in SEE power markets.
Central Eastern benchmark levels rise on Monday
Hungary set the strongest benchmark signal, with HUPX settling at €116.43/MWh, up by €44.1/MWh versus the prior day. Romania followed at €116.29/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia converged near €116.22/MWh and €115.71/MWh. The coupled trading pattern limited divergence among these markets for much of the session.
Italy premium widens while Montenegro shows highest volatility
Montenegro registered the largest price swing among SEE markets, with BELEN rising to €133.23/MWh, up by €74.6/MWh. Italy reached €144.03/MWh, maintaining the top end of the regional structure. The higher Italian level continued to pull south-eastern flows toward the Adriatic basin.
Serbia and North Macedonia trade lower despite net imports
Serbia cleared at €97.84/MWh, below the Hungarian benchmark by €18.59/MWh and more than €46/MWh under Italian levels. North Macedonia was the regional low at €90.94/MWh. Serbia’s lower price occurred while it remained a net importer, linked to hourly scarcity patterns, cross-border constraints, and segmented market dynamics.
Demand recovery lifts prices as net imports fall
The rebound in prices aligned with a sharp increase in consumption across the region. Total HU+SEE demand reached 30,779 MW, up by 3,332 MW compared with Sunday. At the same time, total net imports declined from 2,006 MW to 1,294 MW.
This shift meant a larger share of demand was met through domestic generation and internal redispatch rather than additional external supply. Cross-border flows also reflected a dual orientation between SEE and Italy-linked demand. Imports from CORE remained significant, including AT+SK → HU+SEE at 2,477 MW, alongside exports toward Italy of 1,089 MW.
Intraday price shape shows evening scarcity across markets
The key signal came from intraday structure rather than daily averages alone. In Hungary, prices ranged from €37.2/MWh at H11 to €215.2/MWh at H21. Romania displayed a similar profile, moving from €36.7/MWh at H11 to €212.6/MWh at H21. Serbia also showed volatility from €23/MWh at H12 to €150.1/MWh at H21.
The hourly pattern matched a summer solar profile: photovoltaic output suppressed prices around midday, while an evening ramp created scarcity as solar generation fell but cooling demand persisted. Hungary’s off-peak average of €144.6/MWh exceeded its peak average of €88.3/MWh. This indicated that scarcity clustered more tightly around evening hours than traditional peak/off-peak definitions.
Flexibility spreads widen ahead of the H20–H22 ramp window
Intraday spreads supported flexibility pricing signals for storage and other responsive resources. Spreads reached approximately €178/MWh in Hungary, €176/MWh in Romania, and €127/MWh in Serbia. These levels pointed to arbitrage opportunities for battery storage, demand response, and flexible generation targeting the H20–H22 ramp period.
Hybrid import-export balance across SEE countries
Country balance data pointed to a fragmented system rather than a single unified block. Bulgaria remained the strongest exporter with 1,393 MW net exports, supported by generation of 5,323 MW against consumption of 3,931 MW. Greece exported 618 MW net, while Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 355 MW.
Croatia (1,015 MW net imports) and Hungary (861 MW) were among importers alongside Romania (588 MW) and Serbia (545 MW). Slovenia (285 MW) also imported net volumes, as did Montenegro (217 MW) and Albania (120 MW). The pattern reflected cross-border balancing between export liquidity from Bulgaria and Greece and import needs elsewhere.
Serbia acts as a transit node; Montenegro links into Italy demand
Serbia remained instructive for how pricing can diverge from average levels while imports persist. It held a 545 MW net importer position, with generation of 2,807 MW versus consumption of 3,352 MW. Flow patterns showed Serbia importing from multiple neighbors while exporting into selected directions.
This supported its role as a transit and balancing node rather than a purely surplus or deficit market. Montenegro had limited domestic headroom with generation of 209 MW against consumption of 426 MW, leaving it structurally short domestically despite net importing conditions overall. Strong exports toward Italy were recorded at
