LNG inflows rise in Greece and Italy as regional power prices increase

July 4, 2026

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Week 25 showed that higher LNG availability did not automatically translate into lower electricity prices across Southeast Europe and neighbouring markets. LNG imports into Greece increased by 19.7% to 722.23 GWh, while Italian LNG inflows rose by 5.27% to 4,004.02 GWh. Croatia’s LNG volumes were broadly stable at 635.84 GWh. Electricity prices increased in multiple regional markets, including Italy, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Serbia.

LNG availability versus electricity price outcomes in Week 25

The pattern points to the need for an LNG-to-power pass-through monitor to track how fuel supply relates to power pricing. The key question is whether additional gas supply can reduce marginal electricity prices or instead supports higher gas-fired generation during tighter market conditions. Availability alone does not ensure affordability when system conditions continue to require high-cost thermal generation.

Italy: stronger LNG inflows alongside higher wholesale prices

Italy illustrated the disconnect between LNG inflows and wholesale electricity pricing during Week 25. The Italian wholesale electricity market averaged €127.69/MWh. Lower hydro and wind generation increased reliance on thermal power plants, which raised the role of gas-fired generation in meeting demand.

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In this case, LNG improved fuel availability and system reliability, but it did not prevent elevated electricity prices. The market still required significant firm generation to balance supply and demand.

Greece: higher LNG imports with lower wholesale prices

Greece showed a different outcome, with wholesale electricity prices falling as LNG imports increased. Higher LNG imports coincided with stronger renewable generation and flexible gas-fired capacity supporting system stability. Wholesale electricity prices in Greece decreased to €85.50/MWh.

The Greek data indicates that LNG can contribute to lower power prices when it aligns with favourable renewable output and sufficient operational flexibility across the generation mix.

Croatia: stable LNG volumes but rising electricity prices

Croatia followed a third pattern where LNG inflows stayed relatively stable while power prices rose. Electricity prices increased by 11.2%. The move was linked to stronger demand, higher import dependence, and weaker renewable generation.

The case highlights that gas supply security alone does not remove exposure to broader electricity market pressures when supply-demand fundamentals deteriorate.

Variables tracked in an LNG-to-power pass-through monitor

An effective monitoring approach should follow several indicators together rather than focusing on LNG volumes alone. These include LNG imports, gas hub prices, gas-fired generation output, wholesale electricity prices, and periods of hourly scarcity. This helps separate whether LNG is acting as fuel-cost relief or as a flexible resource during stressed market conditions.