July 2026 day-ahead market volumes and prices
Trading on Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead market increased to 2.52 TWh in July 2026, while the monthly baseload price declined to €122.35/MWh. Day-ahead volume rose 8.6% from 2.38 TWh in June. It was still 7% below the 2.71 TWh recorded in July 2025.
The average baseload price fell 1.9% from €124.67/MWh, and the average peak price decreased 0.8% to €89.51/MWh. The relationship between peak and baseload pricing also shifted during the month. Peak power traded at a larger discount relative to baseload.
Solar-driven changes in hourly pricing patterns
The peak-to-baseload discount aligns with the growing impact of solar generation on Hungary’s power curve. Hungary’s rapidly expanding photovoltaic fleet pushes prices lower during traditional daytime peak hours. At the same time, evening and overnight periods increasingly reflect higher marginal costs linked to imports, gas-fired generation and system balancing.
This hourly pattern is reflected in how market participants manage delivery risk closer to real time. Intraday continuous trading reached 1.294 TWh, up 13.1% from June. The intraday increase is tied to adjustments made by traders, suppliers and renewable generators as solar forecasts change, alongside unplanned outages and cross-border capacity conditions.
Membership growth and intraday participation
HUPX reported 130 day-ahead members, which was six more than in June, and 125 intraday participants. A broader membership base supports competition on the exchange. It also strengthens HUPX’s role as a principal price reference for Hungary and parts of Southeast Europe.
The exchange’s liquidity trend coincided with a more volatile hourly profile in Hungary’s market. July data show a pronounced midday trough alongside an evening ramp in prices. These conditions create stronger incentives for battery storage, demand response and flexible gas generation.
Import dependence and cross-border price spreads
Hungary remains structurally dependent on imported electricity, according to forecast figures for system coverage on 7 August. Forecast domestic generation covered only 2,549 MW of consumption of 5,229 MW, leaving average net imports of 2,680 MW. More than half of national demand was supplied from neighbouring systems.
This import reliance shapes price formation through cross-border flows and congestion effects. Low-cost German and Austrian electricity can depress Hungarian prices when cross-border capacity is available, but congestion can quickly restore a substantial premium. The Hungary-Germany day-ahead spread stood at €35.85/MWh, while Week 33 and Week 34 forward spreads were €43/MWh and €39.50/MWh.
Hourly flexibility replacing undifferentiated baseload value
The July volume figures indicate that rising HUPX liquidity is occurring alongside increasing hourly price variability. Average monthly prices alone increasingly fail to capture the shift in commercial activity described by the market data. The central value is moving from undifferentiated baseload energy toward hourly flexibility, congestion management, and the ability to shift electricity between solar-rich daytime periods and import-constrained evening hours.
