Day-ahead electricity prices increased across most of southeastern Europe for Friday delivery, with weaker wind generation lifting the region’s import requirement. The move widened the Hungary–Germany premium despite higher solar output. Hungary’s HUPX baseload price rose by €2.50 to €180.25/MWh, the highest among the main Central and Southeast European markets outside Italy.
The Hungarian-German spread widened by nearly €25 to €59.72/MWh. Germany’s price fell by €22.40 to €120.53/MWh, while Hungary’s level increased to €180.25/MWh.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia increase into Hungary
The widening spread coincided with a sharp rise in electricity flowing into Hungary and southeastern Europe from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports were forecast at an average 2,605 MW, up 1,252 MW from Thursday. The region’s overall net import position increased by 1,443 MW to 2,569 MW.
The change was driven mainly by wind conditions. Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 932 MW to 1,140 MW, more than offsetting a 1,065 MW increase in solar generation to 7,208 MW.
Demand steady as lower wind supply is covered by imports
Consumption was expected to rise only moderately, up 222 MW to 29,600 MW. The regional average temperature was forecast to increase by around one degree Celsius. With wind supply lower and demand broadly stable, the shortfall was covered through imports and more expensive thermal generation.
Prices strengthened most sharply in Serbia, where SEEPEX jumped €50.50 to €159.62/MWh. Serbia remained €20.63/MWh below Hungary. Greece rose €26.60 to €168.90/MWh and Albania gained €24.10 to €171.58/MWh.
Mixed price moves across monitored SEE markets
Romania increased €7.30 to €176.48/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to just €3.77/MWh. Bulgaria advanced €10.40 to €169.55/MWh. Slovenia fell €23.20 to €168.41/MWh while Croatia eased €1.90 to €170.33/MWh.
Montenegro rose to €148.13/MWh and North Macedonia remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at €144.54/MWh. Italy moved in the opposite direction of most regional markets, with its national price slipping slightly to €220.83/MWh.
Italy premium persists as exports continue westward
With Italy at €220.83/MWh, it held a premium of more than €40/MWh versus Hungary and around €50–76/MWh versus most southeastern markets . Despite relying heavily on northern imports, the region was forecast to send an average 464 MW toward Italy.
Bulgaria was identified as the largest regional exporter at about 1,551 MW, followed by Greece at 602 MW . Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Serbia remained net importers, with Hungary importing around 1,744 MW and Romania importing about 1,203 MW.
Forward prices firm while gas and coal soften
Forward prices also strengthened following the spot moves . Hungarian week 39 power rose by €11 to €190.50/MWh, week 40 gained €3 to €188.50/MWh, and October increased by €3.50 to €198.50/MWh.
The calendar 2026 contract stayed unchanged at €149.50/MWh . Fuel markets were weaker: Austrian CEGH gas dropped by €4.90 to €78.50/MWh, October gas declined to €77.50/MWh, and October coal eased to $138.50 a tonne.
Northern supply meets western demand under transmission constraints
EU carbon allowances moved higher while fuel prices fell, rising by €1.30 to €86.03 a tonne . Friday’s market left southeastern Europe balancing cheap German supply in the north against expensive Italian demand in the west.
With wind output falling sharply, transmission capacity became the decisive constraint rather than regional consumption . The pattern pulled more electricity through Austria and Slovakia while maintaining exports toward Italy.
