Day-ahead electricity prices across South-East Europe experienced a significant rebound on Monday, reversing from the negative pricing environment observed over the weekend. This surge in prices can be attributed to a recovery in electricity demand coupled with a decline in renewable energy generation, which has tightened the regional power balance.
In Hungary, the HUPX baseload price rose to €104.75/MWh, reflecting a dramatic increase of €124.6/MWh from the previous day. Similar trends were noted throughout the region, with Romania’s OPCOM reaching €93.42/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP at €99.64/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX at €98.43/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €82.46/MWh, maintaining a discount compared to core Central European markets, while Bulgaria and Greece traded near €80/MWh.
This price recovery indicates a structural shift from the oversupply conditions seen during the weekend, primarily driven by robust solar output and low demand, to a tighter weekday system where conventional generation has regained its influence on pricing.
A notable factor contributing to this price increase was the substantial rise in electricity demand across the SEE-Hungary region. Forecast consumption climbed to 28,217 MW, an increase of 2,988 MW compared to the previous day, as industrial and commercial activities resumed after the weekend lull.
Concurrently, renewable generation faced a downturn, alleviating some of the downward pressure on prices. Solar output decreased by 329 MW day-on-day, while hydro generation fell more sharply by 637 MW due to weaker hydrological conditions. Wind generation provided only a partial offset with an increase of 147 MW, leading to greater reliance on thermal sources for balancing supply.
The shift in the generation mix pushed up the marginal price-setting technology along the cost curve, allowing coal- and gas-fired units to regain prominence during peak hours. Additionally, cross-border flows played a role in tightening market conditions; net imports into the SEE-Hungary region dropped to -245 MW, marking a decrease of 1,164 MW day-on-day and indicating reduced inflows from Central European markets.
The limited availability of imports restricted supply-side flexibility and reinforced price convergence across Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia. However, there remained a significant price differential toward Italy, where day-ahead prices reached €122.41/MWh, sustaining export incentives along the Balkan-Italian corridor.
Intraday price structures revealed pronounced volatility with deep midday troughs followed by strong evening peaks. In Hungary alone, hourly prices fluctuated from negative levels during solar peak hours to highs exceeding €270/MWh, highlighting the growing impact of renewable intermittency on market dynamics.
Fuel markets showed stability overall, suggesting that recent price movements were primarily influenced by power market fundamentals rather than fluctuations in input costs. Austrian CEGH gas prices remained around €45/MWh while EU carbon allowances hovered near €75/t.
In terms of regional generation mix contributions, nuclear and hydro sources continued to play crucial roles, accounting for 23% and 21% respectively. Solar energy contributed 17%, while coal accounted for 18%. Gas-fired generation remained limited at about 9%, yet it was essential for balancing peak demand.
Serbia’s position as a mid-merit market within this regional framework is notable as it consistently trades at a discount to Hungary while facilitating flows between Central Europe and the southern Balkans. Commercial flow data indicate ongoing imports from Hungary alongside exports toward Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, reinforcing Serbia’s role as a transit and balancing hub.
Market participants anticipate continued volatility driven by interactions between renewable generation patterns and demand cycles. While strong solar output may exert downward pressure on midday prices, tightening hydro conditions combined with stable demand could lead to elevated evening peaks, thus maintaining wide intraday spreads across SEE markets.
