Cross-border flows were one of the decisive features of Southeast Europe electricity trading in Week 25. Regional net imports fell by 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, while the reduction reflected a more complex market structure. Italy remained the dominant net importer at 1.12 TWh. Croatia increased net imports by 26.0%, Greece and Bulgaria deepened export positions, and Serbia shifted from net imports of 107 GWh to net exports of 21 GWh.
Import patterns and price levels across key markets
The regional trading picture included surplus pockets alongside premium demand zones. Greece and Bulgaria traded at lower average prices, while Italy, Hungary, Romania and Croatia recorded materially higher levels. The commercial focus was whether electricity could be moved to the markets that needed it at the right hour rather than where it was cheapest.
Italy’s import pull remained central to cross-border activity. Its price reached €127.69/MWh, creating a strong premium versus most SEE markets. Hungary, Romania and Croatia also moved into higher-price territory, strengthening the value of cross-border optionality. Serbia’s move into modest net export indicated that even lower-priced markets could supply during tighter regional conditions.
Interconnector constraints and congestion effects on spreads
The flow picture highlighted the growing role of congestion in shaping outcomes. Price spreads are only relevant when interconnectors are available for trading and physical movement. A low-price market without export capacity remains local, while a moderately priced market with access to a premium zone can become commercially valuable.
This is reflected in a shift in the SEE trading conversation toward hourly transmission capacity, nomination strategy, balancing exposure and congestion rents. Virtu.Energy
Implications for renewables and industrial procurement
For renewable developers, cross-border flows affect bankability through capture dynamics across locations. A project in a market with recurring local surplus may face weaker capture prices unless it has access to export routes, storage or shaped offtake arrangements.
Industrial buyers also face procurement risk linked to cross-border exposure. Domestic prices can rise even when local generation improves, depending on how power moves across borders during periods of tighter conditions.
From connected national markets to an integrated scarcity network
Week 25 indicated that SEE trading is not limited to separate national power markets connected only by occasional flows. Instead, it is moving toward an increasingly integrated scarcity network driven by cross-border movement.
The ability to interpret price spreads alongside transmission constraints and hourly generation patterns became central to identifying where supply and demand tightened across the region.
