Thermal electricity generation across the monitored Southeast European markets fell 13.07% in Week 34 versus Week 30, dropping from 7,294.50 GWh to 6,341.11 GWh. The decrease was driven by gas-fired output, which declined 30.32% to 2,718.16 GWh. Coal and lignite generation increased by 6.76% during the same period.
Gas price levels and dispatch economics
European TTF gas traded above €60/MWh throughout the week and reached €65.87/MWh on 21 August. At these fuel-price levels, gas-fired power generation became increasingly expensive relative to other thermal technologies where capacity remained available. This shift supported a stronger short-term position for coal and lignite in the thermal mix.
The change in Week 34 was not described as a uniform move toward coal across the region. Instead, the report indicates that solid-fuel plants regained part of their short-term competitive role as gas costs rose. It also notes that the increase in coal and lignite output did not fully offset the overall decline in thermal generation.
Changes by country in Week 34
National outcomes varied across monitored markets. Romania recorded a 45.86% increase in thermal generation, while Hungary rose by 149.48%, Serbia by 12.45%, Croatia by 19.30%, and Greece by 7.45%. Türkiye saw a 26.16% decline over the same period.
Italy’s thermal generation fell by 12.90%. The report attributes Hungary’s increase largely to higher gas-fired output, indicating that local generation constraints can outweigh broader regional patterns observed in Week 34.
Implications for intraday market behavior
The report links the observed shift to how the thermal mix affects marginal generation costs and system response to renewable variability. If higher gas prices lead to greater displacement of gas during normal operating hours, gas plants may be used more during periods with higher value. This can concentrate gas generation into scarcity intervals.
A more segmented thermal stack is therefore indicated for Week 34, with coal and lignite able to recover energy-market share when gas prices rise. At the same time, gas retains value as flexible generation during scarcity periods, according to the report’s description of market dynamics.
The data presented do not indicate a structural long-term reversal in the energy transition. They do show that short-term power-market economics respond quickly to changes in relative fuel costs, with coal and lignite dispatch relevance improving when gas becomes sufficiently expensive.
