Electricity demand in Southeast Europe relied on less gas-fired generation in Week 34 than in Week 30, while European gas prices increased over the same period. The monitored markets recorded a fall in gas burn alongside a rise in TTF levels. The figures show that lower gas output can coincide with continued exposure to gas price movements.
Week 34 generation mix shifts away from gas
Gas-fired generation across the monitored Southeast European markets declined from 3,901.11 GWh to 2,718.16 GWh, down 30.32%. Total thermal generation fell from 7,294.50 GWh to 6,341.11 GWh, a decrease of 13.07%. Coal and lignite generation increased by 6.76%.
The change in the generation mix occurred as European commodity prices moved in the opposite direction. TTF futures averaged €63.99/MWh between 17 and 21 August, up 4.4% versus Week 30. The contract price rose from €61.76/MWh on Monday to €65.87/MWh on Friday.
TTF price increases keep risk premium for power
The report linked the power-price impact to how wholesale markets clear during system balancing needs. It said prices are often set by the cost of the marginal unit required to balance supply and demand rather than by the average cost across all generation. Under that mechanism, fewer gas plants can still leave the market exposed to the gas units needed during constrained hours.
This dynamic was described as especially relevant during evening periods. Solar output declines rapidly after sunset, while air-conditioning and other summer consumption can remain elevated. If hydro, wind, imports or low-cost thermal generation do not cover residual load, expensive gas generation can stay critical even with lower weekly output.
LNG supply disruption and storage tighten market conditions
The gas market faced additional pressure from disruptions affecting LNG flows. The report highlighted shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, constrained global LNG availability and concern about European winter supply . Storage levels were only 63.24% full on 23 August.
With storage at that level, the market was described as sensitive to further supply interruptions . In Southeast Europe’s power system, reduced gas burn did not remove exposure to gas-price risk. The report also pointed to remaining flexible gas units as important for price formation during scarcity periods when renewable output is volatile.
