Week 34 day-ahead pricing across monitored Southeast Europe markets
Between 17 and 23 August, Serbia’s day-ahead market averaged €133.02/MWh, up 5.8% from Week 33. Among the monitored markets, only Türkiye recorded a lower average price. Hungary averaged €155.16/MWh, leaving Serbia at a discount of roughly €22/MWh. Croatia traded at €153.78/MWh, around €21/MWh above Serbia.
Demand changes and the regional comparison with Croatia
Serbian electricity demand increased 13.54% versus Week 30, representing one of the strongest rises in the region. Croatia was the only monitored market with a larger increase, at 14.33%. Most other countries saw consumption decline over the same comparison period. The shift in demand levels coincided with Serbia maintaining its relative price position.
Generation mix and net export status in Serbia
Serbia’s generation profile supported the higher demand during Week 34. Variable renewable generation rose 48.9%, hydropower output increased 66.58%, and thermal generation advanced 12.45% compared with Week 30. Serbia also remained a net electricity exporter throughout the period. This combination aligned rising consumption with increased supply and continued exports.
Hungary’s import dependence and implications for spreads
Hungary’s direction differed from Serbia’s during the same timeframe. Thermal generation increased sharply, while net imports rose 139.08% compared with Week 30. This pointed to greater reliance on domestic marginal thermal capacity and cross-border supply. In Week 34 data, the Serbian-Hungarian spread remained a key reference point for market participants.
Northbound trading conditions referenced by the Serbian-Hungarian spread
A discount of more than €20/MWh was cited as creating theoretical value for northbound flows when cross-border capacity is available and congestion costs do not offset the underlying price difference . The broader dataset also indicated that while the wider SEE complex became more expensive, Serbia’s relative position improved versus several neighbouring markets . This kept Serbia relevant as a comparatively lower-cost electricity source during periods of Central European tightness.
