Bulgaria generated 24.11 TWh of electricity between 1 January and 19 July 2026, up 4.99% versus the same period in 2025. The increase coincided with higher renewable generation and faster growth in domestic demand than total output.
Electricity consumption rose by 6.83% to 22.84 TWh, according to data from transmission system operator ESO. With production exceeding consumption, Bulgaria recorded net exports of approximately 1.27 TWh.
Production surplus narrows as demand grows faster
The reported growth rates indicate a smaller production surplus compared with the comparable 2025 period. On that basis, the surplus fell from roughly 1.58 TWh in 2025 to 1.27 TWh in 2026. Demand growth therefore absorbed a larger share of domestic generation, leaving less volume for neighbouring markets.
The change in balance occurred alongside shifts in generation mix across baseload and renewable sources. Baseload coal and nuclear plants produced 15.21 TWh, down 9.35%. At the same time, renewables connected to the transmission network increased by 13.35% to 2,495.5 GWh.
Renewable output expands across transmission and distribution networks
Renewables connected to distribution networks also rose, increasing by 4.63% to 2,365.4 GWh. Combined reported renewable output across both network levels reached approximately 4.86 TWh. That total is equivalent to about 20% of Bulgaria’s overall electricity production.
The higher renewable share affects how conventional units and cross-border flows operate over the day. Daytime solar generation can support larger export volumes, while evening demand requires nuclear, coal, hydro and imports when photovoltaic output declines.
Bulgaria remains an exporter as firm generation falls
Bulgaria continues to export electricity to Greece, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey. Its ability to sustain those flows increasingly depends on hourly conditions rather than aggregate output alone.
A decline in baseload generation is commercially significant for firm supply during low-renewable periods. Lower coal and nuclear output may reflect outages, maintenance, market displacement or operational constraints, but it reduces the firm-generation margin available during times when renewables are weaker.
The market environment for Bulgarian generators is shifting away from a simple baseload-export model. Renewable expansion increases aggregate production while stronger domestic consumption and lower conventional output narrow the dependable surplus available for exports.
Cross-border capacity and flexible generation are therefore key factors in converting renewable expansion into sustained export revenue rather than lower midday prices.
