Bulgargaz is seeking an approximately 1% reduction in Bulgaria’s regulated wholesale natural-gas price for August, despite lower deliveries under its long-term supply arrangement with Azerbaijan. The company has submitted a proposed August level slightly above €37/MWh, compared with July’s approved price of €37.70/MWh. The request follows a 5.84% increase in July.
The lower August supply is linked to scheduled maintenance affecting deliveries under the Azerbaijani contract. Azerbaijani gas is expected to remain the principal source for the regulated market, but contracted volumes will temporarily decline during August. Bulgargaz plans to manage the shortfall using storage and additional LNG procurement.
Storage withdrawals and LNG imports to cover August supply gap
Bulgargaz intends to withdraw gas from the Chiren underground storage facility to offset reduced contracted volumes. In parallel, it plans to import additional LNG through terminals in Greece. A portion of the LNG volume would later be reinjected into Chiren to keep storage levels aligned with requirements under Bulgaria’s emergency-supply plan.
No LNG deliveries via Turkish terminals are planned for August. This configuration increases reliance on the Greek route, placing emphasis on regional interconnectors and access to Greek LNG infrastructure.
Regulator review and sensitivity to LNG and hub prices
The proposed price indicates that Bulgargaz expects replacement volumes without a major rise in the regulated cost base. The difference between the preliminary August level and July’s approved price is narrow, leaving the final outcome sensitive to LNG procurement costs, storage withdrawals and movements in European hub prices before approval.
The Commission for Energy and Water Regulation, KEVR, will set the final price on 1 August. The decision will follow a public discussion and an update of the supplier’s cost calculations.
Implications for Bulgaria’s gas-fired power economics
For Bulgaria’s electricity market, a regulated gas price around €37/MWh supports relatively competitive fuel input for efficient combined-cycle plants. At about 55% efficiency, the fuel component would be close to €67/MWh of electricity before carbon and operating costs. With EU allowances near €79/t, total variable generation costs would still move above €95/MWh, depending on plant efficiency and emissions intensity.
Gas-fired units are expected to remain relevant during evening scarcity and low-renewable periods. They are also expected to face competition from nuclear, hydro and low-marginal-cost renewable generation during solar-rich hours. Bulgaria’s diversified supply structure is described as enabling gas generation flexibility without making it the dominant baseload source.
