In the fourth week of February, Brent oil futures on the ICE market exhibited a predominantly downward trajectory, culminating in a weekly minimum settlement price of $70.75 per barrel on February 26. This trend was reversed on February 27, when prices surged by 2.4% to reach a weekly maximum of $72.48 per barrel. This figure not only represented a 1.0% increase from the previous week but also marked the highest closing price since June 21, 2025, according to data from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The decline in Brent prices earlier in the week was primarily attributed to concerns regarding demand, exacerbated by newly imposed US tariffs and the anticipation of further production increases by OPEC+. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided upward momentum for prices as the week progressed. Following a meeting on March 1, OPEC+ confirmed plans to resume production increases in April. Market analysts suggest that Brent prices will remain volatile in early March due to ongoing tensions related to the US-Iran conflict and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market maintained levels above €30 per MWh throughout the same week. The lowest settlement price recorded was €30.89 per MWh on February 24, while the peak reached €32.22 per MWh on February 26. By February 27, prices had slightly decreased to €31.96 per MWh, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.2% compared to the previous Friday.
Factors influencing TTF gas prices included high liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and increased renewable energy generation early in the week, which helped keep prices below €32 per MWh despite low storage levels across Europe. As tensions in the Middle East heightened towards the end of the week, concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to rising prices. These geopolitical uncertainties are expected to continue impacting TTF gas pricing dynamics into early March.
In terms of CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for December 2026 contracts, prices remained consistently above €70 per tonne during this period. The highest settlement price was observed at €72.60 per tonne on February 25, followed by a decline that resulted in a weekly minimum of €70.29 per tonne by February 27—a notable decrease of 4.7% from the previous Friday’s closing price.
Overall, these developments highlight significant fluctuations within key energy markets influenced by external factors such as geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, underscoring the complexities facing market participants in navigating these evolving conditions.
