The energy market experienced notable fluctuations during the last week of January, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics. Brent oil futures on the ICE market began the week at a low of $65.59 per barrel on January 26. However, prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $70.71 per barrel on January 29, marking the highest settlement since August 1, 2025. By January 30, Brent prices slightly adjusted to $70.69 per barrel, reflecting a significant increase of 7.3% compared to the previous week. Contributing factors included escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar. In response to these market conditions, OPEC+ announced on February 1 its decision to maintain the current pause on production increases for March.
In parallel, TTF gas futures remained robust throughout the week, consistently trading above €38 per megawatt-hour (MWh). The market observed a weekly low of €38.09/MWh on January 27, followed by a high of €40.11/MWh on January 29—the highest level recorded since June 24, 2025. By the end of the week, prices settled at €39.29/MWh, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous Friday. Contributing to this upward trend were low storage levels in Europe, supply disruptions in the United States, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, a partial recovery in U.S. gas supply provided some relief towards the end of the week.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for December 2026 faced volatility as well, remaining below €90 per tonne throughout the week. The maximum price reached was €88.37 per tonne on January 27, but by January 30, it had dropped to a low of €81.26 per tonne—representing an 8.1% decline from the previous Friday and marking the lowest settlement since November 1, 2025.
This week’s developments underscore how geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics continue to influence energy commodity markets significantly. The interplay between these elements remains critical for stakeholders navigating this complex landscape.
