In the third week of June, Brent crude oil futures followed a volatile but overall downward path. Front Month ICE contracts reached a weekly peak settlement price of $83.17/bbl on June 15, which was 4.8% below the previous Friday. Prices then dropped sharply, with a 5.1% fall on June 16 to a weekly minimum of $78.96/bbl, the lowest level since March 3.
By the end of the week, Brent partially recovered but remained below earlier levels. On June 19, Brent closed at $80.57/bbl, still 7.7% lower than the previous week’s close. Throughout the week, Brent stayed under the $85/bbl threshold.
Geopolitical developments and IEA supply expectations weigh on Brent
The decline in Brent prices was linked to geopolitical and supply-side expectations during the period. Progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran was cited alongside other drivers affecting market pricing. The International Energy Agency projections pointed to a potential global crude surplus by 2027.
These factors contributed to Brent trading consistently below $85/bbl during the week. Market sentiment remained weaker as the outlook for supply improved and geopolitical risk premiums eased.
TTF natural gas prices weaken alongside oil
TTF natural gas futures also moved lower across the same week. The Front Month ICE contract reached its weekly high of €42.51/MWh on June 15, already down 9.1% from the previous week’s close. Prices then declined further into midweek.
The contract hit a weekly low of €40.52/MWh on June 18, the lowest level since April 21. By June 19, prices rebounded slightly to €42.09/MWh, but still finished the week 10% below the prior week’s level.
Weakening commodity prices reflect easing risk and improving supply expectations
Overall, both oil and gas markets in the third week of June were marked by weakening prices and intermittent volatility. Downward pressure was associated with improving supply expectations and easing geopolitical risk premiums across energy markets . AleaSoft reported these moves in its assessment of the period .
